2023 Turners Novices' Chase Trends

The last 10 winners

• Last ran no more than 77 days ago - i.e. December
• Had won one of their last three starts
• Had two to five starts that season
• Had run in two to five novice chases
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had three or more wins on a galloping track
• Had run at Cheltenham before - seven winning
• Had won at least once racing over a distance between 2m3f-2m6f

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Did not have the highest chase rating in the field (exception Yorkhill)
• Aged six or seven (eight-year-old Samcro)
• Last ran in a Graded novice chase (Chantry House) - eight won (including Chantry House)
• Had won a minimum of two races that season (Samcro)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Had won a Grade 1

Key Trials from the last 10 years

• Five of this race's 11 winners last ran in a Graded novice chase at Leopardstown in January or February (Yorkhill, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Benefficient and Noble Prince), and that applies to an additional six placed horses (Faugheen, Disko, Apache Stronghold, Melon, Mengli Khan and Asterion Forlonge). Presently, the two options are the Irish Arkle and Ladbrokes Novice Chase. Mighty Potter won the latter in 2023 and El Fabiolo won the former.
• The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last 10 years (Defi Du Seuil), but it has also produced several placed horses too. Gerri Colombe won this race in 2023.

Trainer Trends

• With four winners, Willie Mullins has dominated the Turners Novices' Chase and he very nearly made it five with Melon, who was beaten a nose in 2020, or with Galopin Des Champs, who fell at the last in 2022 when 12 lengths clear.
• Jonjo O'Neill, Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson are the only Britain-based trainers to have won the race, though Nigel Twiston-Davies and Henderson have saddled six placed horses between them.
• In the 12-year history of the race, the prize has gone to Ireland on nine occasions.

Jockey Trends

• With Willie Mullins having such a good record in this race, it obviously pays to focus on his regular big-race riders.

How did the trends do last year?

With only four runners, there wasn't much to choose from, but winner Bob Olinger did tick almost all the boxes.

Gallopin Des Champs representing top race trainer Willie Mullins also ticked almost all the boxes as well though, and was 12 lengths clear when falling at the last.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

There are four stand-outs on trends amongst the entries, and an outlier not to be ignored in Sir Gerhard.

Aged eight, he's long in the tooth, and he has only run once over over fences, but he's won the Champion Bumper and Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Festival on his only two outings there and is trained by Willie Mullins, so has to be respected if he does line up in this event.

The four who fit the trends best currently are Mighty Potter, Journey With Me and The Real Whacker.

It's also worth noting Gerri Colombe, the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase winner too. The only key trend he does not fit is that he has not run at Cheltenham before, but he is unbeaten in a point-to-point, three bumpers, two hurdles races and three chases, including two Grade 1s.

2022 Turners Novices' Chase Result