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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 8 mins

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Top Teams Deliver For Public

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Top Teams Deliver For Public

The NFL betting public ended a month-long losing streak in Week 13 as several top teams in the league scored decisive covers over their lesser opponents.

Nearly every game with significant liability fell on the wrong side of the ledger for the nation’s legal betting sites and sportsbooks.

There were three games with double-digit NFL spreads on Sunday and two more with lines of 8 points or more. In all five games, the favorites won and covered. Four of the winners are teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Here’s a look at each game with the public consensus on the spread at DraftKings and FanDuel before kickoff on Sunday.

Game ResultSpreadPublic %
JAX at LAR LAR, 37-7LAR -1489% at DraftKings
TB at ATL TB, 30-17TB -10.5 78% at DraftKings
IND at HOU IND, 31-0IND -1090% at DraftKings
DEN at KC KC, 22-9KC -9.539% at FanDuel
ARI at CHI ARI, 33-22ARI -8.571% at FanDuel
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When your teams wins and covers a 14-point line, does it really matter?


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’Not A Good Week’

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Top Teams Deliver For Public 1

On the East Coast, the Miami Dolphins (-6.5) won their fifth straight outright and moved into playoff contention with a 20-9 win over the New York Giants. Garnder Minshew returned to the NFL in a big way as the Eagles (-5.5) scored a convincing win and cover over the Jets. In that game, the total was 42.5 and the halftime score was 24-18, Philly. Math can be fun.

“It was not a good week. But, when the books really didn’t have a losing week of NFL for the entire month of November, you have to expect it. I believe there were maybe two games that we were on the right side of. Thankfully we didn’t have a lot of big decisions and probably the Eagles-Jets and the Colts-Texans were the worst results of the day for us,” said Borgata AC Race and Sports Book Director Thomas Gable.

The first 13 games of Week 13 saw the favorites take an 8-5 edge. After 192 games in 2021, underdogs hold a 109-82-1 (56.7%) ATS advantage ahead of the Monday night game between the No. 1 AFC seed Patriots and host Buffalo Bills (-3).


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Week 13 NFL Betting Trends

Lions Grab 1st Victory, Extend Run ATS

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap: Top Teams Deliver For Public 2

The NFL continued its run of games decided on the last play and/or within three-or-fewer points in Week 13. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers (+3.5) won 20-19 and covered as Baltimore failed on a 2-point conversion in the game’s final minute. Washington (+1.5) won and covered with a hard-fought 17-15 win at Las Vegas thanks to a 48-yard field goal with 37 seconds to play. Both lines were according to our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.

The day’s most emotional outcome for bettors and players occurred in Detroit, where Jared Goff threw an 11-yard TD pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the game’s final play to give the Lions (+7 at WynnBET) their first outright win in 364 days. Despite having a 1-10-1 record straight up, the Lions saw their record move to 8-4 ATS this season with the 29-27 win over Minnesota.


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Despite having just one victory in the past 52 weeks, the Lions are tied for the fourth-best record ATS in the NFL. The Packers, who were idle in Week 13, lead at 10-2, followed by the Cardinals and Cowboys at 9-3.

With two games remaining in Week 13, there have been 37 games with a game-winning score in the final minute of regulation or in overtime, the fourth-most at this point of a season all-time, according to the NFL.

Brady, Gronk Deliver Again

Tom Brady found TE Rob Gronkowski for 2 TDs Sunday as the Buccaneers (-10.5) extended their lead in the NFC South with a 30-17 win and cover at Atlanta. The total fell under the 50.5-point line. The spread and total outcome were not decided until the game's final play, when Falcons QB Matt Ryan ended it with an incomplete pass in the end zone.

Their second scoring strike of the day marked the 90th time during the regular season this combination connected on a TD pass. It is the second most number of TD passes between any QB and receiver in NFL history. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison own the NFL mark of 112. Brady and Gronkowski Sunday passed Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, who had 89.

Brady demolished his prop lines of 304.5 yards passing, 2.5 TDs, 26.5 completions and 40.5 attempts. Brady extended his NFL lead with 4 TD passes and reclaimed the NFL passing lead (3,771 yards) over Derek Carr with 368 yards in the air. He completed 38 of 51 attempts.

Brady solidified his lead in NFL futures MVP betting markets with the performance. He is +200 at SugarHouse.

Major Week 13 Wagers

There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 13. Here are some notable net wins and losses:

  • Loss $110,000: Broncos +8.5 (-110) Over Chiefs at Caesars
  • Loss $275,000: Broncos +9 (-110) Over Chiefs at Caesars
  • Win $350,000: Chargers +3 (+100) Over Bengals at Caesars
  • Win $250,000: Buccaneers -10.5 (-110) Over Falcons at Caesars
  • Win $250,000: Lions +7 (+100) Over Vikings at Caesars

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Plays Of The Day

Jonathan Taylor has been a lot of winning tickets this season. That continued in Week 13.

Like we said, Jonathan Taylor has been A LOT of winning tickets this season.

Here’s to the diehard Lions moneyline bettor(s).

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.