Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 8 mins

Most Bet On Week 10 NFL Games: Floridians Able To Back Brady

Most Bet On Week 10 NFL Games: Floridians Able To Back Brady
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The NFL betting season begins its second-act this week and most of the league's big-name stars are expected to be in attendance. And for the first time, fans of sports betting in Florida will be able to wager live on the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tom Brady and the Bucs are back from their bye week. But Brady, 44, is still leading the league with 25 TD passes. Dak Prescott and Josh Allen (the Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen) will just pretend last week never happened. A Russell Wilson-Aaron Rodgers showdown in Green Bay is just a few negative COVID test results away. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes II continues to chase the windmill of actually covering the spread at betting sites and sportsbooks.

Bettors have multiple tempting offerings to consider when making their NFL picks without the burden of a singular game that demands a mandatory wager.


RELATED: NFL Week 10 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


Bucs Play 1st Game Since Betting Begins In Florida

Early money in Week 10 loves the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is -9.5 and -450 at DraftKings against host Washington and has gobbled up 90% of the spread and 97% of the moneyline handles at that site. The public sentiment is a bit less extreme elsewhere. Tampa Bay lost two weeks ago to a New Orleans Saints team quarterback by Trevor Siemian. Brady will never forget that outcome and move on as if it never happened.

This will be the first opportunity those over 21 located in Florida have the chance to legally wager live on the Super Bowl 55 champs. Mobile sports betting in the nation’s third-most populous state began on Nov. 1, when the Seminole Tribe-backed Hard Rock Sportsbook app was launched.


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Whether or not there will be betting available in Florida next week or beyond rests with a U.S. District Court judge in Washington. A pair of lawsuits challenging the compact that established sports betting in the Sunshine State remain unresolved. A ruling in the case could come as soon as Monday.

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Week 10 NFL Betting Trends

Most Bet On Week 10 NFL Games: Floridians Able To Back Brady 1

“Bounce-Back Weekend?”

The betting public was demolished financially in Week 9. Underdogs covered in 10 of 14 games as the nation’s sports betting apps stockpiled digital Benjamins. After 135 games in 2021, underdogs hold an overall 77-57-1 (57%) edge ATS.

The Bills (-14.5, -1250), Cowboys (-10, -500), Raiders (-3, -167), Rams (-7.5, -400) and Saints (-6.5, -275) all lost outright in Week 9. Those losses drained betting accounts and slaughtered parlays from coast-to-coast.

Here’s a look at the betting odds and public support for these five “Bounce-Back Weekend” participants. The number are from our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings:

Game Odds Public % ML ML
BUF at NYJ BUF -12 BUF 59% BUF -599 NYJ +475
ATL at DAL DAL -9.5 DAL 50% DAL -400 ATL +325
KC at LVR LV +2.5 LV 35% LV +125 KC -135
LAR at SF LAR -4 LAR 90% LAR -190 SF +170
NO at TEN NO +3 NO 10% NO +130 TEN -140

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Don’t Ignore The Over/Under

Most Bet On Week 10 NFL Games: Floridians Able To Back Brady 2

Bettors should never feel compelled to wager on a spread or moneyline if they’re not comfortable with either the play or the price. We’ve seen dozens of games this season miss on double-digit spread totals. As the season progresses and injuries make more of an impact, often there is value on the posted totals.

And while betting on the under is far less enjoyable for in-game bettors, it often proves the wiser play. Through 254 games with a decision on the total, 139 have hit on the under. That’s a win rate of 54.8%. Always focus on the actual line at betting sites and not what it should be. In this case, it’s been one of the books setting their totals too high.


RELATED: NFL Week 10 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game


A total of 20 NFL teams have averaged outcomes below the total this season. The Packers are the best bet for under backers, averaging 6.2 points below their closing total while hitting the under in 7 of 9 games (77.8%).

The Colts have the best overall percentage when it comes to hitting the over, doing it in 6 of their 9 games, or 66.7%. The New York Jets, yes, the same Jets that have not won a Super Bowl since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House, have delivered for over betters in 5 of 8 starts. They also have the highest average number of points vs. the total this season through eight games. They are averaging 5.6 points above the posted number. Something to keep in mind for when New York online sports betting goes live, which is expected in 2022.

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Public Plays – Week 10

Biggest Spread Liabilities

Three games carry significant exposure. Here are the Week 10 games with at least 75% of the spread handle on the favorite based on our consensus analysis:

Game Favorite Handle
LAR at SF LAR -4 90%
TB at WAS TB -9.5 79%
BAL at MIA -BAL -7.5 79%
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Major Line Movements

Most Bet On Week 10 NFL Games: Floridians Able To Back Brady 3

Here’s an NFL odds recap of the games that have seen their lines move 2 or more points ahead of Week 10:

Bills at Jets

Opening Line: Bills -13

Current Line: Bills -11

The Buzz: The line was first posted before the Bills fell 9-6 at Jacksonville and the Jets chose to stick with Mike White as the starting QB this week. The Jets offense has generated 64 points in White’s two starts. He’s thrown for 5 TDs and 702 yards (in addition to 4 picks). The Jets made the mistake of beating Cincinnati and putting up 30 points on the Colts. They now think they can actually compete this season.

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Seahawks at Packers

Opening Line: Packers -5.5

Current Line: Packers -3.5

The Buzz: This line has been affected by the certainty of Wilson’s status for this week – he will play - and the uncertainty surrounding Rodgers. The soonest Rodgers can return to the Packers is Saturday. This means he will not have practiced with his teammates before Sunday’s kickoff.


Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5

Current Line: Buccaneers -9.5

The Buzz: The Buccaneers are 6-2 overall but just 3-5 ATS, in part because of bulging lines such as this. Oddsmakers over-reacted to Tampa Bay’s loss at New Orleans in Week 8. Meanwhile, sharp bettors reacted with fervor to get the Bucs at such a discount. The Bucs have covered in all three of their double-digit spread games. They failed to cover a 9.5-line in Week 1 against the Cowboys.


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All odds are current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review and our FanDuel sportsbook review. You can also check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel comparison of the two books.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.