By Bill Speros | | 15 mins
How Much Would You Make Betting On Cam Newton Each Week?
Cam Newton heads into his second season in New England as the team’s starting quarterback – at least according to head coach Bill Belichick. Oddsmakers and many NFL betting experts aren’t so sure.
Why? Belichick drafted Alabama QB Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Thus far in training camp it appears the QBs have fought to a draw. Neither one has been dominant over the other for more than one day at a time. We'll get our first look at live action when the Patriots face the Washington Football Team in their opening preseason game on Thursday.
In the latest in our series looking at NFL quarterbacks against the spread we ask, how much would you have made or lost betting on Newton each week of his NFL career so far? The short answer: Not enough to buy one of those custom Meshika lids he features as part of his pre-game and post-game wardrobe.
Backing Netwon A Winning Proposition - Barely
How well has Newton done against NFL spreads during his career?
As a starter, Newton is 76-66-1 ATS in his career. That nearly matches his 78-67-1 mark outright in 146 NFL starts. In his first season with the Patriots, Newton went 7-8 ATS. That equaled New England’s overall record in the games he started.
Using our system of betting $100 on Newton ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Newton weekly since his 2011 debut are up just $308.40 after 10 seasons. That’s less than a tank of gas each year.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the Panthers and Patriots ATS records for each game Newton has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
This story is the latest in our ongoing series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Newton compares to other QBs here:
Patriots fans in New England can legally bet on the team in Rhode Island and New Hampshire now. By the season’s midway point, Connecticut sports betting will be available too. A bill to legalize in-person and online sports betting has passed the Massachusetts state House of Representatives. It remains on hold in the state Senate. Gov. Charlie Baker has indicted he would sign the legislation if it gets to his desk.
Cam Newton 2021 Futures To Watch
Newton and the Patriots spent 2020 wandering through NFL Middle Earth in the wake of Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay. The Patriots finished 7-9, posting their first under .500 record since 2000. It was also the first season in which New England missed the playoffs since 2008, when Brady was sidelined with a torn ACL after the first quarter of the Week 1 opener. The Patriots aren’t getting much love in NFL futures markets this season, either.
Newton, Jones, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots are projected to finish among the also-rans, according to the latest odds available on major betting apps. New England is +3700 with FanDuel to win its seventh Super Bowl this upcoming February. That same site has New England +1700 to win the AFC , and as the third choice at +370 to win the AFC East behind Buffalo and Miami.
Because of the uncertainty over the Patriots' starting QB slot, there are no passing yards or TD total props available for Newton at top sportsbooks. That’s a strong tell that Newton’s future might not be as certain as Belichick would like us to believe. Let’s take a look some Newton-related futures and prop bets. Some don’t include his name but will still be greatly impacted by his presence – or lack thereof.
Mac Jones To Take 1st Snap In 2021
Yes: +250 at DraftKings
That’s right, this line is for Mac and not Cam. The price on Jones to start Week 1 has bounced from +500 a week after the draft to +225 a month ago. The Patriots are into their second week of camp and the low buzz that Jones could start Week 1 continues.
There is too much uncertainty to bet “no” here at the current price. Even if Belichick believes Cam is his No. 1, the risk of injury over the next month counterbalances the -350 odds. The lure here is taking Mac Jones at +250 to start Week 1. But bet it lightly.
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Cam Newton To Win MVP
Odds: +6000 at FanDuel
Not gonna happen. Newton earned MVP honors in 2015 for Carolina. That year, he posted some impressive numbers: 3,837 yards passing, 35 passing TDs, 636 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs. A similar performance this year might not even be tops in the AFC East, given the dual skill set of Buffalo QB Josh Allen. The Belichick factor also looms.
Brady won six Super Bowls in New England, but only three MVP awards in his 20 seasons with the Patriots. The “Was It The QB or Coach Debate” continues in some corners of New England, even after Tampa Tom’s rout of Kansas City in Super Bowl 55. Newton is not currently posted in any “Comeback Player of the Year” markets, but he might see some action there if he enjoys a strong run early in the season.
Bet One, Get One: First Bet Match Up To $250
Patriots Win Total & To Make Playoffs
Let’s take a look at where these numbers stand at various sportsbooks. There is value in pricing depending on how you want to bet.
|Patriots Win Total||9 Wins||9.5 Wins|
|Over||-140 at FanDuel||+110 at DraftKings|
|Under||+120 at FanDuel||-130 at DraftKings|
|Patriots To Make The Playoffs||Yes||+126 at FanDuel||+110 at DraftKings|
|No||-154 at FanDuel||-140 at DraftKings|
The Patriots spent more than $160 million in guaranteed money this offseason to land several big-name free agents, including WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, DB Jalen Mills and LBs Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy.
The Patriots defense has Dont’a Hightower back from a COVID-19 opt-out. Long-time slot receiver Julian Edelman also retired in the offseason.
All of this means that Newton or Jones will be given the keys, but not a whole lot of gas, to drive the Patriots’ bus. This team was built in Belichick’s image down to the choice of Jones from Alabama, coached by Belichick’s long-time BFF Nick Saban.
The Hoodie has a lot to prove this year, especially against Brady in Week 4. The value here is on the upside. We like the Patriots to go over 9.5 wins at +110 with DraftKings , and to make the playoffs at +126 with FanDuel .