This Saturday, the Octagon travels to Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri for UFC St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento. We have a heavyweight bout between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento in the headliner, and I break down that bout along with two other matches in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC St. Louis Main Event Best Bet

UFC St. Louis Main Event Best Bet Odds: Derrick Lewis (-155) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (+130)

The main event of UFC St. Louis features Derrick Lewis against Rodrigo Nascimento. Lewis is a -155 betting apps favorite, and I like him to win this fight devastatingly with another big-time knockout.

Lewis is 39 and he is 18-10 overall in the UFC. The American first joined the UFC a decade ago and he has been one of the stalwarts of the heavyweight division ever since. He has fought all of the best fighters in the division over the years, and he holds notable wins over the likes of Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes, and Alexander Volkov. He is a devastating knockout artist who has won plenty of fights inside the Octagon. He also holds the UFC record for most knockout wins with 14. 

On the feet, it is difficult to stand and trade with Lewis due to the danger he possesses in his strikes. His ground game is a problem, though, with a poor 53% takedown defense, and his chin isn’t great either with seven knockout losses. Still, he has managed to overcome those negatives just by being extremely powerful and being able to catch the KO.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 18 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Nascimento is 31 and he is 4-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian shined on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019 to get a UFC contract, and he has since only lost one of six UFC fights, leading him to get ranked in the top 15. That being said, he has no wins over any ranked fighters, and his lone UFC loss was a brutal knockout defeat to Chris Daukaus. 

His only two UFC wins over current talent both came against Don’Tale Mayes. Nascimento is a decent heavyweight with solid grappling, but his striking leaves a lot to be desired. It’s also worth noting he has only scored one finish in the UFC compared to 14 finishes for Lewis. Going up against Lewis, look for Nascimento to get this fight to the ground as he will be in trouble standing.

Lewis has a weak ground game, but the fact he did go 25 minutes with Almeida without getting submitted in his last fight makes me think he can survive an early onslaught by Nascimento in this spot. As the fight goes on, I expect Lewis to use his experience and ability to dig himself out of holes to pull off a spectacular knockout win. It may be uncomfortable at times, but go with Lewis to win this fight as a -155 favorite, and take “The Black Beast” to get another knockout.

UFC St. Louis: Derrick Lewis wins at  -155 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC St. Louis: ADerrick Lewis wins via TKO with  DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 47 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Other UFC St. Louis Best Bets

UFC St. Louis Odds: Mateusz Rebecki (-345) vs. Diego Ferreira (+275)

The lightweights clash when Mateusz Rebecki fights Diego Ferreira. Rebecki is a -345 favorite, and I fully expect him to get his hand raised.

Rebecki is 3-0 and he is 3-0 in the UFC. The Pole was one of the top fighters on his season of Dana White’s Contender Series and he has looked incredible so far in the UFC with three dominant victories, including two straight finishes. Rebecki is very well-rounded and dangerous everywhere the fight goes, with nasty knockout power on the feet, slick submissions on the ground, and the wrestling skills to dictate where the fight takes place. He is a fantastic talent and there is no doubt that Rebecki has what it takes to be a title contender in the UFC at 155 lbs.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 62 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Ferreira is 39 and he is 9-5 in the UFC. The Brazilian has been in the UFC for a decade now and he has had an excellent, underrated career. He has six stoppage wins in the UFC and holds notable victories over the likes of Anthony Pettis, Mairbek Taisumov, and Michael Johnson, who he brutally knocked out in his last fight. 

Ferreira has nasty knockout power on the feet and he also has submissions on the ground. However, he does not have great takedown defense, and he has also been knocked out three times in the UFC, so is someone who is also beatable. Still, his level of experience and his ability to pull off upsets in the Octagon cannot be discounted.

Ferreira is a good fighter and has been for a long time, but I think Rebeck is the real deal and I would favor him over any unranked lightweight right now in the UFC, Ferreira included. I love his wrestling game and I think he could look to use his grappling to win this fight. However, I’m expecting a striking battle here, with Rebecki eventually ending things with a highlight-reel knockout win. Take Rebecki to win as a -345 favorite and take him to win by TKO for a prop.

UFC St. Louis Best Bet: Mateusz Rebecki wins at -345 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC St. Louis: Best Prop Bet: Mateusz Rebecki wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 30 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UFC St. Louis Best Bet Odds: Jake Hadley (-166) vs. Charles Johnson (+142)

At flyweight, Jake Hadley takes on Charles Johnson. Despite being a +142 underdog, I’m going with the hometown fighter Johnson to pull off the upset.

Hadley is 27 and he is 2-2 in the UFC. The Brit won a contract after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series and has since parlayed it into a decent start to his UFC career. Both of his wins came via stoppage, with both of his losses being competitive decisions. The biggest hole in Hadley’s game is his takedown defense, which sits at a poor 35%. Unfortunately, that just is not good enough at the highest level of the game, and I fully expect Johnson to exploit that hole.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 24 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Johnson is 33 and he is 3-4 in the UFC. The American has a sub-.500 record so far in the Octagon, but he has fought tough competition along the way, and he has proven difficult to put away with all of his losses going to the scorecards. Almost all of his fights are close but with Johnson doing just a little more, which has helped him pull off several upsets. He is coming off his best win yet over Azat Maksum, and now he gets to fight Hadley in his hometown of St. Louis. With the likely wrestling advantage in this fight, Johnson should be favored to win.

I expect this fight to mainly take place on the ground with many exciting grappling exchanges. However, while Hadley is a solid grappler in his own right, I favor Johnson’s wrestling and also the scrambles he creates. I like his cardio as the fight goes on, too. I expect Johnson to do a little more and edge out a decision on the judges’ scorecards in a “Fight of the Night” contender. Take Johnson to win here as a +142 underdog, and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC St. Louis Best Bet: Charles Johnson wins at +142 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC St. Louis Best Prop Bet: Charles Johnson wins via decision with DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets + No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day Of The Playoffs

Tap for Promo Activated! Visit site

Used 18 Times Today

Must be 21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.