How Much Would You Make Betting On Drew Lock Each Week?
Bill Speros | 10 mins
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Drew Lock has yet to find his footing or a secure spot as the starting QB for the Denver Broncos. The media, Denver’s coaches, fans and NFL betting oddsmakers remain undecided as to whether or not Lock will beat out newcomer Teddy Bridgewater for the starting job.
In the latest in our series looking at NFL quarterbacks against the spread we ask, how well has Lock done against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have made backing him each week of his career? The short answer: More than you think.
As a starter, Lock is 11-7 ATS in his career. That tops his 8-10 mark outright in 18 NFL starts.
Backing Lock A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Lock ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Lock weekly since his 2019 debut are up $299.90. A strong return in spite of his overall record.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the Broncos ATS records for each game Lock has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Broncos Nation members over 21 years old can legally bet on their team in Colorado. But oddsmakers at the top betting apps see little hope for the Broncos this season, no matter the quarterback.
Denver is +4500 with DraftKings ➜ to win its fourth Super Bowl this upcoming February. That same site has Denver +2000 to win the AFC ➜, and as the third choice at +600 to win the AFC West ➜ behind Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers.
Drew Lock 2021 Futures To Watch
The Broncos have lacked stability at the QB position since Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired five years ago. Manning will be formally inducted in Canton, Ohio this weekend. With Tom Brady in attendance. The Broncos could use either one right now.
Denver has churned up three head coaches since Manning's exit, and used nine quarterbacks in the process. Bridgewater would be No. 10.
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets to watch at top sportsbooks featuring Lock and the Broncos. Neither Bridgewater nor Lock have odds posted for total passing yards and TDs.
Who Will Take Broncos 1st Snap in 2021?
Here are the odds on the Broncos Week 1 starting QB:
|Drew Lock||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
|Teddy Bridgewater||+120 at DraftKings ➜|
|Any Other QB||+350 at DraftKings ➜|
Odds via DraftKings ➜ and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.
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Expect a decision here in the next 10 days. The Broncos need to focus their offense on the eventual winner, and their first preseason game is Aug. 14. This decision is so difficult that even John Elway tapped out and is no longer handling football operations.
The Broncos loaded up this offseason and have assembled their most potent roster since their Super Bowl 50-winning squad. That’s not to say they’re a contender to win Super Bowl 56, but this team could well surprise on the upside.
The drama lies not so much between Lock and Bridgewater, but between general manager George Paton and coach Vic Fangio. Paton just started and has a six-year deal. Fangio is 12-20 in his two seasons as Denver coach. He’s on the clock.
Paton passed on drafting Justin Fields and Mac Jones to take Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. But then the GM traded for Bridgewater.
Bridgewater knows how to win close games and the veteran is 35-13-1 ATS over his career with the Vikings, Saints and Panthers. Lock has unrefined passing skills and the sort of physical makeup that could make him the next Josh Allen. This one is a genuine toss-up.
If both QBs are running close to even, the pick will be Lock given his long-term potential. We like Drew Lock to take the first snap for the Broncos in 2021.
Drew Lock To Lead NFL In Passing Yards
Odds: +40000 at DraftKings ➜
Bridgewater (+25000) holds a slight edge over Lock in this category, if you’re looking for any outlying piece of datum to argue for Bridgewater to be the Broncos’ primary QB. Otherwise, you can ignore this one. Pass here.
Drew Lock To Win MVP
Odds: +9000 at FanDuel ➜
Crazier things have happened, but they won’t here. Lock was putrid last year as he shared the NFL lead with 15 interceptions. His completion rate of 57.3% was last among starting QBs. Not only are the Broncos better this year, Lock has the benefit of working with the same offensive coordinator (Pat Shurmur) for the second season in a row.
But it won’t nearly be enough in this category, which is stacked with superstars.
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This story is the latest in our current series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Lock compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers |
Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton