How Much Would You Make Betting On Teddy Bridgewater Each Week?
QB Teddy Bridgewater earned the starting job in Denver this season, taking advantage of the latest “second chance” in his NFL career. He was shipped to the Mile High City from Carolina this offseason as the Broncos sought stability at the quarterback position.
NFL betting experts and oddsmakers were unsure if Bridgewater could topple the incumbent Drew Lock and win the starting job in training camp. In a competition head coach Vic Fangio called “really damn close,” Bridgewater was given the QB1 spot Wednesday and the start on Sept. 12 at MetLife Stadium against the New York Giants.
In the latest in our series looking at NFL quarterbacks against the spread we ask, how well has Bridgewater done against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have made backing him each week of his career?
Bridgewater had a rough season in Charlotte last year but knows how to close out games. He was the underdog in his battle with Lock and was at +120 with DraftKings to win the job, while Lock was at +100 with DraftKings to take Denver's initial snap in the 2021 season. We initially liked Lock to keep his job, but his performance flattened during camp.
Backing Bridgewater A Winning Proposition
As a starter, Bridgewater is 35-13-1 ATS in his career while playing for the Vikings, Saints and Panthers. That crushes his 26-23 mark outright in 49 NFL starts. Bridgewater made only one start from 2016-18, which occurred in the final week of the 2018 season.
Using our system of betting $100 on Bridgewater ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Bridgewater weekly since his 2014 debut are up a hefty $1,881.50. That's a stellar return in spite of his overall record.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the Vikings, Saints and Panthers ATS records for each game Bridgewater has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Broncos Nation members over 21 years old can legally bet on their team in Colorado. And strictly in terms of success ATS, Broncos bettors should be happy with the choice of Bridgewater over Lock, who is 11-7 ATS in his 18 starts.
Oddsmakers at the top betting apps see scant hope for the 2021 Broncos, even after the Bridgewater decision was announced. The Broncos have +4500 odds with DraftKings to win Super Bowl title No. 4 this season. That site has Denver listed at +2200 to win the AFC, and +600 to take the AFC West, the third choice behind Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers.
Broncos 2021 Futures To Watch
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Bridgewater and the Broncos. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not Denver plays a 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 8.5 Wins||-110 at FanDuel|
|Under 8.5 Wins||+100 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+156 at FanDuel|
|No||-145 at DraftKings|
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Denver went 5-11 last season with three different starting QBs. Lock had 13 starts, followed by Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien with one apiece. In Week 12, the Broncos went without an official starting QB, using running back Kendall Hinton in a 31-3 loss to the Saints.
Denver lost seven of its final nine games as the team drifted aimlessly without an offensive identity. Only five NFL teams have a softer 2021 schedule than the Broncos, based on their combined opponents’ 2020 records. Denver’s toughest road games outside the AFC West come at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Broncos could go 3-0 since they open at the Giants, before heading to Jacksonville and opening at home against the Jets.
But getting six more wins the rest of the way will be tough, especially given the quality of the AFC West and with home games against Baltimore and Washington.
Teddy Bridgewater Futures, Props To Watch
Bridgewater is the 10th Broncos starting quarterback since Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired five years ago. The Broncos have gone through three head coaches in the same amount of time.
There was an underlying drama between general manager George Paton and head coach Vic Fangio. Paton just began a six-year deal. Fangio is eight games under .500 in his two seasons as Denver coach, and is on the clock. Paton skipped on drafting Justin Fields and Mac Jones to take Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II at No. 9 overall in this year's NFL draft. Paton then dealt for Bridgewater.
Teddy Bridgewater Regular Season Passing Yards
Here are the odds on Bridgewater’s passing yards for the season:
|Total Yards Passing||Odds|
|Over 3,175.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 3,175.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
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Bridgewater was not nearly as bad last season as his 4-11 record in Charlotte would indicate. He completed 69.1% of his passes and tallied 3,733 yards. His 15 TDs, however, were countered by 11 interceptions.
The Broncos QB this year has plenty of enticing targets: WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, and TE Noah Fant. If Bridgewater stays healthy and plays a full schedule, he should surpass this number. Back Bridgewater to go over 3,175 yards passing at -115 at DraftKings.
Teddy Bridgewater To Lead NFL In Passing Yards
Odds: +22000 at FanDuel
Bridgewater held a slight edge over Lock (+40000) in this category before he was pegged as the starter. But there is simply too much talent in this category. Sit this market out.
Teddy Bridgewater To Win MVP
Odds: +15000 at FanDuel
Bridgewater has an accurate arm, at home or on the road. But it won’t nearly be enough for him in this category, which is stacked with superstars. Save your money and don’t bet on Bridgewater to be NFL MVP.
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NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the latest story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Bridgewater compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson