How Much Would You Make Betting On Daniel Jones Each Week?
When Daniel Jones isn’t at the bottom of a pig-pile during a fight in training camp, he’s working to fulfill the expectations that came with being taken with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft. Many Giants fans, media types and NFL betting oddsmakers remain unimpressed with what Jones has produced thus far. Thankfully for Jones, he has the full faith and confidence of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
In the latest in our series looking at NFL quarterbacks against the spread we ask, how well has Jones done against NFL spreads and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his career?
As a starter, Jones is 13-13 ATS in his career. That tops his 8-18 mark outright in 26 NFL starts.
But remember, this is gambling. And you have to pay for the privilege. So backing “Danny Dimes” would have cost you a pretty penny.
Backing Jones A Money-Losing Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Jones ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Jones weekly since his 2019 debut are down $118.18. Proof that “breaking even” isn’t what it seems.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the Giants ATS records for each game Jones has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Bookmakers at the betting apps are predicting another Big Blue Christmas at Met-Life Stadium. New York is priced at +8000 with DraftKings to win Super Bowl 56. That same site has the Giants +4000 to win the NFC , and as the third choice at +450 to win the NFC East behind Dallas and Washington.
THE ROAD TO SO-FI: Super Bowl 56 Best Odds & Deals
Daniel Jones 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
The Giants lost running back Saquon Barkley for the season after he tore his right-knee ACL in Week 2 against the Bears last season. Barkley likely won’t be back until at least Week 3. Jones and the Giants will use Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay, signed as a free agent from Detroit, to ignite their moribund offense once they’re both in the lineup.
Daniel Jones Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Jones this season:
|Daniel Jones Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 24||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 24||-115 at DraftKings|
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Jones has 35 TDs in 26 career starts. This total will be close because the Giants will look to Barkley to carry the ball in on short-and-goal situations. But all Jones has to do is average 1.5 TDs over 17 games to hit this number.
That should not be too much of an ask. We like Daniel Jones to go over 24 TDs passing for the 2021 season.
Daniel Jones Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Jones this season:
|Daniel Jones Passing Yards||Odds|
|Over 3,800.5||-115 at BetMGM|
|Under 3,800.5||-115 at BetMGM|
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The Giants will probably use Jones as more of a caretaker than a playmaker this season. They might want to consider otherwise. Jones has a pair of new “weapons” in rookie WR Kadarius Toney (taken with the 20th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Florida) and the aforementioned Golladay.
They are joined by Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram. In deep balls last season, Jones put up some solid numbers. In attempts over 20 yards, Jones was 18 for 39, for 617 yards passing, 4 TDs and no picks.
Jones and his teammates could well surprise to the upside when it comes to the passing game – as long as he doesn’t get annihilated in the process. The Giants were near the bottom of the NFL in pass protection last season.
Bet Daniel Jones to go over 3,800.5 yards passing in 2021. And pray he lasts 17 weeks.
Daniel Jones Rushing Yards
Here are the odds on total rushing yards for Jones this season:
|Daniel Jones Rushing Yards||Odds|
|Over 400.5||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 400.5||-115 at DraftKings|
This number is among the lowest available for quarterbacks on the rushing market. Jones “rushed” for 423 yards last season in 14 games, but was often running for his metaphorical life and not the planned ballcarrier. And Barkley was absent for 12 of those games.
The Giants are working to avoid using Jones as a legitimate offensive option on the ground as they hope to have him for the long term. With a healthy Barkley and the amped-up receiving corps, Jones’ rushing yards should be down significantly this year, even over 17 games.
Take the under on Daniel Jones rushing for 400.5 yards at -115 with DraftKings .
This story is the 14th in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Jones compares to other QBs here: