By Bill Speros | | 8 mins
Most Bet On NFL Week 13 Games: Bills Mafia vs. The Godfather
Week 13 of the NFL betting season offers another “Biggest Game of the Season” on Monday night. The New England Patriots visit Buffalo. It’s Bills Mafia vs. The Godfather. Again. And just like it was in the olden days, Don Belichick has a quarterback this time.
Josh Allen and the Bills began the season looking like the Super Bowl 56 betting favorite many had them to be. But much of Buffalo’s early success was hidden behind the mirage of soft opponents. New England QB Mac Jones snared Rookie of the Month honors for November and has won more games than the other five rookies who have started in 2021 combined.
The victor this week emerges with first place in the AFC East. The Patriots have a shot to enter Week 14 with the No. 1 seed in the AFC. How the NFL allowed that to happen just 20 months after Tom Brady immigrated to Florida remains one of the great unanswered mysteries of our time.
NFL Week 13 Odds on this game have hovered between Buffalo -2.5 to -3. The total is 42.5 points at BetMGM. That’s understandable given that New England has the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense allowing just 15.8 PPG. Buffalo is second at 16.5 PPG. The Bills lead the NFL with the fewest yards allowed per game with 275.2. New England ranks fourth at 316.7.
The Patriots are +125 on the moneyline at bet365, while the Bills are -140 at DraftKings. The public backs the Patriots with 62% of the spread handle and 81% of the moneyline handle, according according to our analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, PointsBet, bet365, Resorts, DraftKings, SugarHouse, 888 and FOX Bet.
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Bills Remain Among AFC, Super Bowl Favorites
The Bills continue to be the among the favorites at betting sites – along with the Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots – to win the AFC. Bettors who want to back the Bills to win the Super Bowl are getting +750 at DraftKings , while the Bills are +350 on the same site.
The NFL futures market value on the Patriots has evaporated. New England was +10000 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl and +3500 to win the AFC six weeks ago when it was 2-4. The Patriots are now +1000 and +450, respectively, in those wagers at the same site.
Sports betting is legal in three of the six states that comprise New England: New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Legislation that would have legalized mobile and on-site sports betting in Massachusetts stalled this fall on Beacon Hill. The state Senate failed to act on a sports betting bill passed by House with overwhelming support. The move has proven costly to would-be Patriots backers, given that the team is both 8-4 ATS and straight up. The Patriots have won and covered for six straight weeks.
Mobile New York sports betting was approved by regulators earlier this month. It is expected to be active by the Super Bowl, where betters will have access to nine apps and a host of sign-up offers, including a first-bet match of up to $1,001 thanks to a Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
NFL CHAMPION: Super Bowl 56 Odds For All 32 Teams
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Steelers-Ravens, Chiefs-Broncos Star In Week 13
The Steelers and Ravens meet in Pittsburgh. The host Steelers (5-5-1) are in danger of falling off the map when it comes to playoff consideration. The Ravens, meanwhile, have the best record in the AFC at 8-3 and are coming off 16-10 victory over the Browns, a game won by Baltimore despite Lamar Jackson throwing 4 interceptions. Both teams in this AFC North clash are missing several key players due to injury. Expect another low-scoring, physical, black-and-gold-and-purple slugfest.
Four picks probably won’t cut it against the Steelers. Baltimore has the best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing TDs just 42.9% of the time. This is the 30th game matching head coaches John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin. The Steelers and Tomlin hold a 15-14 edge.
The lead in the AFC West will be on the line when the Denver Broncos play the Kansas City Chiefs in the Sunday night game. The visiting Broncos have never beaten Patrick Mahomes II. There is a possibility of all four AFC West teams being 6-5 after this week, if the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders all win Sunday.
Brady Stays Ahead of MVP Field
Tom Brady maintained his edge in the NFL MVP betting race. Brady, 44, leads the NFL in TD passes and is second passing distance, just 33 feet behind Derek Carr. Matthew Stafford has fallen off our leaderboard, with Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray moving up into consideration.
Here’s a look:
NFL MVP Odds
|Tom Brady||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+275 at BetMGM|
|Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills||+550 at SugarHouse|
|Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers||+700 at BetMGM|
|Patrick Mahomes II||Kansas City Chiefs||+900 at SugarHouse|
|Dak Prescott||Dallas Cowboys||+1100 at BetMGM|
|Kyler Murray||Arizona Cardinals||+1200 at SugarHouse|
Mahomes and Murray are coming off a bye entering Week 13. Murray was the favorite in early October and may see some more money coming in from Arizona sports betting fans in the closing weeks of the season if he returns to form.
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Week 13 NFL Betting Trends
‘The Year Of The Dog’ Continues
Sportsbooks ended Week 12 solidly in the black, even though favorites went 8-7 across the nation’s betting apps. But the books scored big victories thanks to outright wins by Denver (+2.5) over the LA Chargers and the New York Giants upsetting the Eagles (-3).
After 179 games in 2021, underdogs have a 101-77-1 (56.4%) edge ATS.
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Week 13 Biggest Liabilities
Several Sunday games carry significant spread exposure in Week 13 based on our consensus analysis:
|DEN at KC||DEN +9.5||71%|
|JAX at LAR||LAR +13||79%|
|NYG at MIA||MIA 6||73%|
|IND at HOU||IND -10||86%|
|MIN at DET||MIN -7||71%|
|ARI at CHI||ARI -7.5||24%|
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