By Bill Speros | | 15 mins
How Much Would You Make Betting On Derek Carr Each Week?
The best ability is availability. One stellar example of this characteristic translating into a big payday in the NFL is Derek Carr. The QB1 for the Las Vegas Raiders has missed just two starts in his seven NFL seasons with the club. Carr enters the final season of a five-year, $125 million deal this season. How that might motivate him will be a focus for NFL betting experts and oddsmakers.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Carr done against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his career?
As a starter, Carr is 53-55-2 ATS in his career. That surpasses his 47-63 record outright in 110 NFL starts. Amazingly, Carr has never started a postseason game.
Carr finished 11th among full-time NFL starters with a 101.4 QB rating in 2020. His TD-to-Interception ratio was 3-1 and he completed 67.3% of his passes. He’s a steady veteran and a pure passer who has shown he can even beat the Chiefs when it counts. Carr’s future in Sin City will be the storyline this season. He is not lacking in motivation.
Backing Carr A Losing Proposition
But using our system of betting $100 on Carr ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Carr weekly since his 2014 debut are down $682.30, or one really bad night at the $20 blackjack table.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Carr has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Hometown fans of the Raiders over 21 can legally bet on their team in Nevada, but those in Oakland and Los Angeles remain out of luck, as sports betting has yet to be legalized in California. Still, bookmakers at top betting apps are offering little hope for the Raiders to win a championship this year.
The Silver and Black is priced at +10000 with DraftKings to win Super Bowl 56. That same site has the Raiders at +4000 to win the AFC , and at +2200 to win the AFC West behind Kansas City, the L.A. Chargers and Denver.
Let’s take a quick look at the win totals and playoff odds for Carr and the Raiders.
|Over 7 Wins||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 7 Wins||+105 at DraftKings|
|Over 6.5 Wins||-160 at FanDuel|
|Under 6.5 Wins||+135 at FanDuel|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+350 at DraftKings|
|No||-480 at FanDuel|
The Raiders finished 8-8 last season but stumbled badly down the stretch, losing five of their last seven games. The Raiders have the eighth-toughest schedule in the league this year, based on their opponents' 2020 records. But they are too good to lose 10 games. Take the over on 6.5 wins at -160 with FanDuel . But don't count on the Raiders reaching the postseason.
Derek Carr 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
The Raiders moved to bolster their offensive line by taking OT Alex Leatherwood from Alabama with the 17th overall pick. Coach Jon Gruden will keep defensive coordinators guessing, balancing the ball between running back Josh Jacobs, tight end Darren Waller, and a receiving corps that includes Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards. Carr is clutch, with 21 of his 47 career wins coming via a fourth-quarter comeback.
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Carr, and how best to play them this season.
Derek Carr Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Carr this season:
|Derek Carr Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 25.5||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 25.5||-115 at DraftKings|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Carr threw for 27 TDs last season. That was his highest total since 2016. Given that he’s in the final year of his contract, he’ll be looking for some good numbers. This tracks with the addition of another game.
The question is, are the Raiders better offensively this year than last? And can Carr limit his turnovers? Carr tied for the lead among NFL QBs with 11 fumbles last season. He also threw nine picks.
We are like Carr going over 25.5 TDs passing at -115 with DraftKings for the 2021 season.
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Derek Carr Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Carr this season:
|Over 4,075.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Under 4,075.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Over 4,050.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 4,050.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
Carr went over both numbers last season, finishing with 4,103 yards passing, and his QB rating has improved for four straight seasons. Carr has never had fewer than 513 attempts in a season. He connected on 67.3% of his attempts in 2020.
This is a good number for Carr, especially with the addition of a 17th game. The biggest factor in determining how well Carr does may hinge on any improvement the Raiders make on defense this season. The team brought in Gus Bradley to take over as coordinator in the offseason, along with Gerald McCoy and Yannick Ngakoue on the defensive line, and Casey Hayward in the secondary.
The Raiders will enjoy a raucous home-field advantage unlike anywhere else in the league. Take Carr going over 4,050.5 yards passing at DraftKings.
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This is the 17th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Carr compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill