Perhaps the only person in South Florida who wasn’t surprised that Tua Tagovailoa was given the starting QB spot for the Miami Dolphins after the 2020 bye was Tagovailoa himself. Brian Flores’ decision to go with Tua would eventually trigger Ryan Fitzpatrick’s departure, and left Dolphins players, some coaches and NFL betting experts and oddsmakers scrambling to react.

This season, Fitzpatrick is in Washington. Tagovailoa is set to start his first NFL season opener on Sept. 12 at New England.

This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Tagovailoa done against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his career so far?

As a starter, Tagovailoa is 6-3 ATS in his career. That matches the Dolphins' overall record in his nine NFL starts. The Dolphins went 3-3 under Fitzpatrick last season before the Big Switch. The Dolphins won and covered in Tagovailoa’s first three starts, but the Alabama product was minimally used. He did not throw the ball more than 30 times as a starter until his fifth game.

Backing Tagovailoa A Winning Proposition

Using our system of betting $100 on Tagovailoa ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Tagovailoa weekly last season are up $245.40, or a nifty four-star dinner for two with drinks and dessert on South Beach.

Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Tagovailoa has started, according to Pro Football Reference.

Hometown fans of the Dolphins over 21 will be able to legally bet on their team in Florida this season, but they will have to wait until at least Oct. 15. And bookmakers at top betting apps are offering scant hope for the Dolphins to reach the AFC Championship Game and/or Super Bowl.

The Fins are priced at +10000 with DraftKings to win Super Bowl 56. That same site has the Dolphins at +1800 to win the AFC , and at +350 to win the AFC East along with the Patriots. Buffalo is -150, while the Jets are overpriced even at +2500.

Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Dolphins do not play a full 17-game schedule.

Odds via FanDuel and DraftKings , and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.

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The window for the Dolphins to make a significant move in the AFC East may have already closed. Buffalo is firmly solidified as the team to beat.

And the Patriots went on a post-Tom Brady hangover spending spree this offseason. Rookie QB Mac Jones is already putting heat on Cam Newton in camp for the QB1 spot. And Hoodie is all-in on trying to one-up TB12. Our call here is to take the under on 9.5 wins for the Dolphins in 2021, and to back the Dolphins on missing the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch

Tagovailoa showed all the signs of an untested rookie last season, and was often shaky and unstable leading the offense. He was benched for Week 11 before starting the final five games of the season. His confidence has to improve this season.

The Dolphins overhauled several key sections of their roster this past offseason. That started with their commitment to go all-in with Tua. Miami had flirted with a possible trade for now-embattled Houston QB Deshaun Watson. The Dolphins traded up in the draft from the No. 12 spot to the 6th spot, but passed on Justin Fields and Jones to take Tagovailoa’s former Alabama teammate WR Jaylen Waddle. Joining Waddle are DeVante Parker, Will Fuller and Preston Williams.

Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Tagovailoa, and how best to play them this season.

Tua Tagovailoa Passing TDs

Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Tagovailoa this season:

Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.

Tua threw 11 TDs against five picks in his nine starts last season. This number appears on the low end considering all he needs to do is to average 1.5 TDs over the course of the season to hit the over here.

Barring unforeseen injury, Tagovailoa will play all 17 games this season. He is "Plan A" and "Plan B." One can only hope and assume he’ll avoid potential turnovers on big plays and learn how to avoid needless mistakes.

We back Tagovailoa going over 24.5 TDs passing at -115 with DraftKings for the 2021 season.

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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards

Here are the odds on total passing yards for Tagovailoa this season:

Tagovailoa completed 64.1% of his 290 attempts last season, and threw for 1,814 yards after being taken fifth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Dolphins have the softest AFC schedule in terms of 2020 opponents’ records. That will certainly help.

In opting for Tagovailoa over Fitzpatrick and in using their draft capital on skill positions, the Dolphins are in building mode. If anything, they overshot their mark last season. The variance in the above numbers gives bettors some comfort on either side of this play.

But Tagovailoa is still climbing slowly on the upside of the learning curve. Take Tagovailoa going under 4,000.5 yards passing at DraftKings.

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This is the 18th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Tagovailoa compares to other QBs here:

Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr