By Bill Speros | | 19 mins
How Much Would You Make Betting On Trevor Lawrence Each Week?
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Urban Meyer has a dysfunctional relationship with the truth as a head football coach. When he talks about a viable quarterback battle between Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew II in Jaguars camp this summer, don’t necessarily believe it, or base any NFL betting decision on just those words.
The Jaguars clinched the first pick of the NFL draft late last season. They brought in Meyer to oversee their entire football operation in January. He did not take the job and choose Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick to wage a serious QB battle in training camp.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. We know Lawrence is a perfect 0-0 against NFL betting lines. In this case, we decided to see how well you would have done backing Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers during his three seasons playing college ball.
Lawrence lost just two of his 40 starts in college. His first defeat came in the 2019 national title game courtesy of Alabama. His second loss, which also closed his college run, came at the hands of Ohio State in the national semifinal game played this past January.
But betting on Lawrence has been a much tougher slog. Overall, Lawrence was 26-12 in his 38 college starts that featured college football betting lines. Of course, the Tigers often faced monstrous odds. And three times, Lawrence and Company missed the cover by a point or less.
Backing Lawrence A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Lawrence ATS each week of his NCAA career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed the Tigers weekly during Lawrence’s career finished $1,163.40 in the black.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Lawrence started at Clemson, according to BettingData.com.
By comparison, Minshew (No. 16 above) is 9-11 in his career against the spread. He is 7-13 overall in his 20 starts. No threat to Lawrence there, either, though Minshew has conceded nothing in camp and is playing as if the job will be his.
Hometown fans of the Jaguars over 21 will be able to legally bet on their team in Florida this season, but they will have to wait until at least Oct. 15. And bookmakers at top betting apps are offering scant hope for the Jaguars to produce anything resembling a successful season, at least in terms of winning games, regardless of the quarterback.
The Jags are priced at +13000 with DraftKings to win Super Bowl 56. That same site has the Jaguars at +6000 to win the AFC , and at +600 to win the AFC South behind Tennessee (-105) and Indianapolis (+140), but ahead of woeful Houston (+2800).
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Lawrence and the Jaguars. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Jaguars do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 6.5 Wins||+105 at FanDuel|
|Under 6.5 Wins||-115 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+330 at FanDuel|
|No||-400 at DraftKings|
The most compelling story in Jags camp these days not concerning the QBs is Tim Tebow and whether he will make the team as a backup tight end. Minshew and Lawrence have both played well in camp thus far. But only two of the past nine QBs taken with the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft did not start their season opener, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
The Jaguars get two shots at the Texans in the AFC South, including the season opener. And then they have Denver at home in Week 2. You might see a quick 2-0 start here. The Colts could be without QB Carson Wentz for up to three months but don’t face the Jaguars until November. If the offensive line holds up, look for the Jags to surprise on the upside here.
Take the over on 6.5 wins at +105 with FanDuel for the Jaguars in 2021. But back the Jaguars on missing the playoffs this year. There’s just too much ground to overcome.
Trevor Lawrence 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Lawrence is just one of several rookie QBs who will or could be starting before October. While no one knows what will happen when play begins for real in September, Lawrence has demonstrated all the tools necessary to succeed on Sundays.
The Jags took Lawrence’s Clemson teammate and running back Travis Etienne with their second draft pick this year to bolster the offense. They also bring back a core of reliable receivers. The offense should exceed expectations under Meyer’s guidance. But his first job is to keep Lawrence upright and ambulatory all season.
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Lawrence, and how best to play them this season.
Trevor Lawrence Offensive Rookie Of The Year
Here are the odds for NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year:
|Trevor Lawrence||+300 at DraftKings|
|Kyle Pitts||+750 at DraftKings|
|Najee Harris||+800 at DraftKings|
|Trey Lance||+800 at DraftKings|
|Justin Fields||+850 at DraftKings|
|Ja’Marr Chase||+1000 at DraftKings|
|Zach Wilson||+1000 at DraftKings|
|Mac Jones||+1000 at DraftKings|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Oddsmakers have slotted Lawrence in as strong favorite here. He is in the best position to win this award given his high profile, and the fact that he is both a QB and was the overall No. 1 pick. But this price is too high right now. And he will fall fast if he struggles early.
If/when he falters during the season and his price improves, make your move. Pitts, the tight end out of Florida, is poised to have a monster season with the Falcons and Matt Ryan in the absence of Julio Jones. Based on value, he’s the best play right now. If you want a long shot, go with Patriots QB Mac Jones.
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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Lawrence this season:
|Over 4,150.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Over 4,150.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Over 4,050.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 4,050.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
Check out our FanDuel sportsbook review for more information.
Lawrence has never thrown a pass in the NFL and he is taking over the offense ranked 28th in the league in 2020. Yet oddsmakers project his total yards to surpass that of nine other quarterbacks, including Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger. That might help with some perspective here.
Lawrence has tremendous potential and all the tools to justify his selection as the top pick in this QB-laden draft. Jacksonville’s field position will be horrible all season, so it could get ugly quickly on 3rd-and-long situations.
Lawrence throwing under 4,050.5 yards in 2021 at -115 with DraftKings is the best play here.
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Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Lawrence this season:
|Trevor Lawrence Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 25.5||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 25.5||-115 at DraftKings|
This number will be tough for Lawrence to hit. The Jaguars will be running the ball this year, especially inside the red zone. Look at the comps for quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick (23), Tua Tagovailoa (24.5) and Lamar Jackson (25.5) all have lower or the same projected total as Lawrence.
Put your money on Lawrence finishing under 25.5 TDs passing at -115 with DraftKings for the 2021 season.
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This is the 19th story in our ongoing series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Lawrence compares to our other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa