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2024 U.S. Open Picks: Best Bets, Tips & Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 7 mins

2024 U.S. Open Picks: Best Bets, Tips & Predictions

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The U.S. Open is annually regarded as one of the toughest tests for the world’s best golfers, and the 124th edition certainly lives up to the reputation. Pinehurst No. 2 hosts for the fourth time and the first in a decade, starting June 13. 

Scottie Scheffler is once again a massive favorite in the latest U.S. Open golf odds, and one of the biggest favorites in major golf history. His odds to win are at +280; Xander Schauffele is next on the board at +1000. 

Rory McIlroy (+1100), Colin Morikawa (+1400) and Viktor Hovland (+1800) round out the Top 5, with LIV Tour golfers Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka each at +2000. 

Boost your sports betting app wagering experience by following Bookies.com veteran handicapper Adam Thompson’s best golf betting.

2024 U.S. Open Picks & Best Bets

To Win: Xander Schauffele 

Odds: +1000 at BetMGM

Golfers who can’t hit it straight off the tee at Pinehurst aren’t going to be successful. Contenders must do that, be prepared to work off the green due to the sloping nature of several putting areas, and they’ll need to score using the putter as well. Only one golfer ranks in the Top 26 in Drive Accuracy, Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Certainly, Scheffler is the favorite for a reason, but Xander’s odds provide far more bang for the buck. 

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Top 10: Xander Schauffele

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Schauffele has just one win all year – the PGA Championship, but he’s a full-time resident of the Top 10, finishing in such a spot in six of the last seven tournaments and in 77% of all tournaments this year. That includes all the majors and The Players Championship. He has the game and the mettle to do it one more time here. 

Top 10: Denny McCarthy

Odds: +330 at DraftKings

There are several golfers in the field that may not always be in contention at the typical PGA Tour stops, but whose game fits Pinehurst very well. McCarthy is one of them. He’s Top 5 in both Putting and Scrambling, and a respectable 51st in Drive Accuracy. McCarthy has made 13-of-15 cuts in 2024. We’re going big with a Top 20 call here, of which he has just two all year. Both of those came in his last six events, and he took sixth and second. 

Top 20: Tommy Fleetwood

Odds: +140 at Caesars

Fleetwood has hovered around 20th at a majority of his events, missing just one cut with four Top 10 finishes. In the last six events, he has two Top 10s (including third at The Masters) and finished 20th, 21st and 26th in the last three. Fleetwood ranks No. 3 in Drive Accuracy and No. 10 in Scrambling, and the putting is good enough. A Top 10 finish at +320 is enticing as well. 

Top 30: Russell Henley

Odds: +140 at FanDuel

Another “horse for the course,” Henley ranks high in all the key measurables for Pinehurst. He’s playing well overall, finishing 27th or better in four straight tournaments, including at the Memorial and the PGA Championship. When he’s feeling it, he’s very competitive, with three fourth-place finishes. He should feel comfortable here. 

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U.S. Open DFS Picks

$10,000 or Higher

Xander Schauffele ($11,500) ranks third on the charts behind Scheffler ($13,000!) and Rory McIlroy ($12,100). Scheffler is just too pricey, and while I expect Rory to contend, Xander is the preferred big dog for the lineups.

$8,000 - $9,999

Ludvig Aberg ($9,600) has finished outside the Top 25 just one time since January. If there’s a higher-mid-range plug-and-play golfer, Aberg has been it. 

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) is the reliable Tier 2 guy, someone who we can count on to make a cut, be in the Top 20 into the weekend and hang around on Sunday. 

$7,999-Under

Jason Day ($7,500) hasn’t been consistent, but this is his type of course, and he’s missed just one cut in his last 11 tournaments.

Russell Henley ($6,900) has just one missed cut this year, he’s playing Top 30 golf and has the right stats to earn high expectations, higher than this price suggests. 

Denny McCarthy ($6,700) will be included in all my lineups as a big dark horse with the game to make a moment for himself. He may not win, but he should make the cut and compete for a Top 40 spot – hopefully higher. 

Billy Horschel ($6,600) is good on this type of course and he’s re-finding his form, finishing outside the Top 25 just once in his last five events. That includes a win in Punta Cana. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.