The Astros lost Justin Verlander to the Mets in free agency this offseason. Jose Altuve suffered a fractured thumb during the World Baseball Classic playing for his native Venezuela against the United States in March. Altuve will undergo surgery and will miss the start of the regular season. Any prolonged loss dents the Astros' lineup. Altuve hit 28 home runs, 39 doubles, and slashed .300/.387./533 in 2022.

Altuve joins Yordan Alvarez (hand) and Micheal Brantley (shoulder) among the likely missing starters on Opening Day.

The Astros should take the West - or at least reach the postseason - but they will have to rely on a largely untested pitching staff and hope for health to make it back to the World Series. 

The Yankees have spent more than $4 billion in payroll this century but have just one World Series trophy to show for their financial effort. 

The 2022 season offered an all-too-typical tale for the Bombers. New York nabbed the AL East title with 99 wins, booted Cleveland in the ALDS, only to get swept by the eventual world champion Astros.

Through it all, Aaron Judge launched 62 bombs and captured AL MVP honors. But it wasn't enough. The Yankees locked down Judge in the offseason for nine years and made sure he had help in the lineup by keeping Anthony Rizzo, and keeping Carlos Rodon in the fold for six years.

But the question remains: How much good will it do in the postseason?

The Atlanta Braves usually disappear from the World Series radar from Opening Day until Labor Day. Then, suddenly, Atlanta makes some sort of late-season surge and takes the NL East. Atlanta has won the division five years in a row. The Braves and Mets both finished with 101 wins in 2022, but the Braves won the tie-breaker.

The Braves front office has kept the team’s successful core intact by signing several team-friendly long-term deals. Atlanta added 2022 Rookie of the Year Michael Harris to the outfield. And keep an eye out for Spencer Strider in the NL Cy Young Award race. The Braves will likely add some smaller pieces up until the trade deadline, including a big-name pitcher down the stretch from a team that is selling. (Chris Sale, perhaps?).

The Braves won it all in 2021 and are always a solid investment in this market.

The Dodgers and Yankees follow a similar pattern each year. Both enter the season as a solid favorite on betting apps. Both boast big-money stars and can’t-miss lineups. And both whiff in the posteason, save for the COVID-19-abbreviated campaign in 2020 that resulted in the Dodgers' first World Series title since 1988.

The Dodgers won 111 games last season and crushed the NL West, only to lose to the San Diego Padres 3-1 in the NLDS. The Dodgers beat the Padres by 22 games in the regular season.

The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard on one-year deals to anchor the rotation. J.D. Martinez joins his former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts as the Dodgers' first-ever full-time DH. But both Turners, Trea and Justin, departed via free agency, along with Cody Bellinger.

The Dodgers have a mix of new and old faces this season. Will it be enough?

Mets fans played “Taps” after Edwin Diaz was lost for the season with a “it-can-only-happen-to-the-Mets” torn patellar tendon injury while celebrating Puerto Rico’s win over the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Owner Steve Cohen spent over $483 million to bulk-up the Amazin’s roster. Brandon Nimmo and Diaz were kept in Queens thanks to Cohen’s largess. The team also added 2022 AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (his third) with a two-year, $86.7 million deal. 

The Mets’ payroll is astronomical - $264.5 million. Even with 101 wins in 2022, the Mets could not get out of the Wild Card Round against San Diego.

Injuries like the one suffered by Diaz remain the great unknown in these futures markets and serve as a reminder of just how perilous and fickle even the best-laid plans can be.

The San Diego Padres' win total of 93.5 games is third in the NL behind the Dodgers and Braves. 

The Padres should score a zillion runs thanks to the new rules concerning larger bases, the pitch clock, and limited moves to first base. MLB wants more balls in play and more runners on the basepaths. Well, good luck with a lineup that will include Fernando Tatis Jr. back from his PED suspension, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts. Opposing pitchers will be throwing out of the stretch from the first inning forward.

San Diego’s rotation could swing in either direction. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Michael Wacha could deliver double-digit wins each, or flop miserably. Josh Hader anchors an above-average bullpen.

The Padres are poised to topple the Dodgers in the NL West and might be able to use home-field to reach the Fall Classic. We like this price.

If you’re looking for a serious long shot, the Brewers are a great value pick. The NL Central is wide open. The projected win total between Milwaukee and St. Louis is just three games. But the Brew Crew is a spectacular value at +3500 in this market when compared to the +1700 number on St. Louis.

The Brewers missed the playoff last season and dealt closer Josh Hader at the trade deadline. Their lineup lacks the punch of the Padres or star power of the Dodgers. But the Brewers are stacked where it counts the most – starting pitching. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young contender again in 2023. He won it in 2021. And they back him up with Brandon Woodruff. That’s the sort of 1-2 pitching punch that wreaks havoc in the Wild Card or NLDS. 

This is a price worth grabbing that will only go lower during the season.