The Octagon debuts at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada for a massive event this Saturday night when UFC 306 goes down. The main UFC event features UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley taking on Merab Dvalishvili for the title, with the co-main event pitting UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso against Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy bout, plus there are eight undercard bouts. We’ll break down the two title fights plus one of the undercard bouts in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

UFC 306 Main Event Best Bet: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC 306 Main Event Best Bet

Sean O’Malley (-135) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+115)

In the main event of UFC 306, UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley takes on Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley is a -135 favorite, and I like him to defend his title in this matchup.

O’Malley is 29 and he is 10-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American has gone unbeaten over his last seven fights, with notable wins over Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Vera, and Petr Yan. O’Malley has won six fights by knockout in the UFC, showing off massive knockout power and pinpoint precision along the way. On the feet, no one can compete with O’Malley. His takedown defense, however, is questionable and is going to be put to the test here against Dvalishvili. If he can keep it standing, he will likely win, but if he gets taken down, this could be a bad night for him.

Dvalishvili is 33 and he is 10-2 in the UFC. The Georgian lost his first two UFC fights but he has reeled off 10 straight wins since then, becoming a serious title contender along the way with notable wins over Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and Henry Cejudo. Dvalishvili is one of the most effective grapplers in the weight class and he also has incredible cardio. He has proven to be very difficult to beat and he is now just one step away from winning the belt. There is a lot to like about Dvalishvili, and he now gets his toughest test to date against an elite striker in O’Malley.

Dvalishvili is an amazing grappler with unlimited cardio, but I don’t trust his striking defense, especially going up against a pinpoint sniper like O’Malley. The champ is a fantastic fighter who has huge knockout power and who is constantly making improvements to his overall game. Go with O’Malley to win this fight as a -135 favorite, and take him to win this fight with a knockout.

UFC 306 Best Bet: Sean O’Malley wins at -135 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Other UFC 306 Best Bets

Alexa Grasso (-130) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+110)

In the co-main event of UFC 306, UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso fights Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso is a -130 favorite at the top betting apps, and I like her to win this trilogy bout.

Grasso is 31 and she is 8-3-1 in the UFC. The Mexican defeated Shevchenko in a massive upset in March 2023 to claim the UFC women’s flyweight title and then retained it in a draw in their rematch, although the scorecards were controversial. Still, Grasso is unbeaten over her last six fights since moving up to flyweight, which looks like the right weight class for her. She has notable wins over Shevchenko, Maycee Barber, and Viviane Araujo along the way, proving her worth as a champion. Grasso is a great boxer who also has shown slick submission skills, making her a difficult opponent for anyone to face, and the slight favorite to win this trilogy bout.

Shevchenko is 36 and she is 12-3-1 in the UFC. The Kyrgyzstan native is one of the greatest women’s MMA fighters of all time, having defeated the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade, Taila Santos, Holly Holm, and Julianna Pena during her UFC career. Shevchenko is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the weight class, showing off great striking skills to go along with really solid wrestling and submission ability. She has also been 25 minutes many times. She is simply one of the greatest women’s MMA fighters to ever list, but at 36, may finally be declining.

This trilogy bout between Grasso and Shevchenko should be a good one. Grasso won the first fight by submission in a big upset, then the two fought to a draw in the rematch, forcing this trilogy bout. Given Grasso has had the upper hand so far, given she is the younger fighter, and given all the Mexicans in the crowd behind her, go with Grasso to defend her belt at -130 odds.

UFC 306 Best Bet: Alexa Grasso wins at -130 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-135) vs. Ode Osbourne (+115)

Ronaldo Rodriguez takes on Ode Osbourne at flyweight in the main card opener. Rodriguez is a -135 favorite, and I like him to get his hand raised.

Rodriguez is 25 and he is 1-0 in the UFC. The Mexican made his UFC debut earlier this year and he scored a submission win over Denys Bondar. He is a very well-rounded fighter who has striking skills and submission ability, and he is also a big star in his native Mexico, which is likely why Rodriguez is opening up this main card. While Rodriguez is not a household name yet, he very well could come Sunday morning if he gets a big finish here over his opponent Osbourne.

Osbourne is 32 and he is 4-5 in the UFC. The Jamaican has been in the UFC for four years and has had mixed success in the Octagon, scoring notable wins over Charles Johnson and CJ Vergara, but also having been finished in all five of his losses. He is a good striker with power and he has some takedown skills, but his chin is a bit iffy and his submission defense is very poor. Going up against a slick grappler like Rodriguez, this looks like a tough matchup for him.

Rodriguez is one of the brightest up-and-coming fighters at 125 lbs, while Osbourne is an inconsistent veteran who often gets finished. The UFC is putting Rodriguez in this main event opening slot on a massive show for a reason: to help create a new star on the biggest stage. Go with Rodriguez to win as a -135 favorite, and I fully expect him to get the finish in this fight.

UFC 306 Best Bet: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins at -135 with DraftKings Sportsbook