How Much Would You Win Betting On Joe Burrow Each Week?
Bill Speros | 18 mins
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Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow began his NFL career in 2020 with a string of solid performances that ended mostly in defeat. His play left NFL betting experts and oddsmakers short as Burrow’s new Bengals over-performed against the spread with him as QB.
Burrow’s rookie season ended with a torn ACL in his 10th game after he was sandwiched between a pair of Washington defenders on a clean play. Burrow is back and presumably fully healthy this season.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well did Burrow perform against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his brief career so far?
Burrow was 6-4 as a starter ATS in 2020 before his injury. That easily surpassed the Bengals’ 2-7-1 overall record in those 10 starts.
Backing Burrow A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Burrow ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed Burrow weekly last season would be up $145.40. Not a lot of cash. But a fortune for someone whose team went 2-7-1 in the same timeframe. That may be a sign for bettors to watch.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Burrow has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Burrow won 35 of his 38 starts at LSU for the Bayou Bengals in his two seasons as a starter after transferring from Ohio State. He was part of the greatest season in college football history, 15-0 in 2019. LSU smashed the closing 5.5-point line in their national title game against Clemson, winning 42-25. The same held in the national semifinal. The Tigers were -12.5 in the Peach Bowl before crushing Oklahoma 63-28. Burrow threw 7 TDs in that game.
Those performances were on everyone’s mind last fall in Cincinnati when Burrow switched to Sundays after being drafted No. 1 overall. But Burrow’s surrounding cast proved so inept that it could not get him through a full season without being metaphorically mauled.
The Bengals are getting little respect among Super Bowl 56 oddsmakers. Cincinnati is priced at +15000 with DraftKings ➜ to win it all. That same site has the Bengals at +6500 to win the AFC ➜, and +2500 to win the AFC North ➜. The Baltimore Ravens are +115 to win the division, followed by Cleveland at +150 and Pittsburgh at +500.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for the Bengals and Burrow. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Bengals do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 6.5 Wins||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 6.5 Wins||-110 at FanDuel ➜|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+500 at DraftKings ➜|
|No||-650 at FanDuel ➜|
Odds via FanDuel ➜ and DraftKings ➜, and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.
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The Bengals have the sixth-toughest NFL schedule this season, based on their opponents’ combined 2020 records. They will certainly improve on their 4-11-1 record from last year.
Getting seven wins and over the above total would mean a 75% increase with just one extra game to get it done. But there is a path to get there. It will require a lot of things to happen. And it begins with the defense getting off the field to give Burrow the opportunity to showcase his skills.
The Bengals could still hit this number but finish under .500 and miss the playoffs. That seems to be where this season is headed. Take the over on 6.5 wins at +100 at DraftKings ➜ for the Bengals in 2021, and bet on the Bengals missing the playoffs at -650 at FanDuel ➜.
Joe Burrow 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Burrow threw for 2,688 yards and 13 touchdowns in his 10-plus games before his season ended, officially with a torn ACL. Over a 17-game season, those numbers put Burrow on pace to throw for 4,569 yards and 22 TDs.
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Burrow, and how best to play them this season.
Joe Burrow Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Burrow this season:
|Joe Burrow Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 26.5||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 26.5||-120 at DraftKings ➜|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
The Bengals boosted their offensive line and receiving corps this offseason. The team has as many as seven newcomers who will/could earn starting spots, roughly a third of their lineup. Among them are LB Larry Ogunjobi, DE Trey Hendrickson, OLs Riley Reiff and rookie OL Jackson Carman, and, of course, first-round pick WR Ja’Marr Chase. This infusion of new talent was the focus for the Bengals this offseason, in addition to giving Burrow more targets.
This number is a bit too high for Burrow, even with his available options. Back under 26.5 TD passes for Burrow at -120 with DraftKings ➜ for the 2021 season.
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Burrow this season:
|Over 4,249.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 4,249.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Over 4,200.5 Yards||-130 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 4,200.5 Yards||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
This could get good. Burrow has a legit opportunity to have a trio of 1,000-yard receivers this year in Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Chase. Even if he can’t coax 1,000 yards apiece from all three, Burrow will be amassing miles of yards through the air.
Chase outlined his goals with the Bengals after the draft: 1,500 yards receiving, 10 TDs and offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Why limit yourself? The Bengals boosted their woeful offensive line by taking Carman from Clemson with the 46th overall pick and acquiring Reiff via free agency.
Back Burrow to go over 4,249.5 yards passing at -112 with FanDuel ➜. The total is lower at DraftKings, but the price difference makes this bet worth it since we’re looking at Burrow to finish in the 4,400-yard range. Burrow is also +2500 at DraftKings ➜ to lead the NFL in passing yards, if you're so inclined.
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This is the 22nd story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Burrow compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold