NFC South contenders face off in an offense-fueled Thursday Night Football showdown for Week 5, as Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Over the last three weeks, the Falcons (2-2) have defeated the Saints and Eagles, and lost in the final drive against the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are a solid 3-1, with wins over the Eagles and Lions. 

Atlanta is -1.5 in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons NFL odds , while the Over/Under for total points has remained steady at 43.5. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 60.2% of his NFL NFL picks five years running and is 66.7% through four weeks this season, reveals his plays for this big NFC South primetime matchup. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Predictions

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Point Spread

On paper, the Falcons offense has all the pieces to be scoring 30 points every week. But it was averaging just 16.3 ppg and didn’t score an offensive TD in last week’s win over the Saints. It’s not clicking yet for Cousins and Co. 

That’s not the case in Tampa, where Mayfield and his cast have picked up where they left off. They’ve poured in 33-plus points twice, including last week in a dominant win over Philly. Last year in Atlanta he tossed two TDs in a 29-25 win. Back the Buccaneers to cover the small spread as the road dog – but as a secondary play. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under

This is a pretty modest total, given the offensive potential of both sides, and lack of defensive standouts. Atlanta has yet to get things going, which is why the Under is 3-1. The one exception was Week 4 vs. the Saints, a 26-24 (O/U 42.5) when the offense didn’t score a TD. 

We’ll go with the Under one more time here. The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 games involving Cousins, and it’s been the trend on Thursday nights as well. Mayfield under the lights is a whopping 13-2 to the under, as well. The Under is a solid play for TNF. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Moneyline

Tampa Bay is +105 on the moneyline, while Atlanta is posted at -125. We like the Bucs to cover, but what about just taking them straight up? 

That sounds good, too. The last time these teams faced off and it finished in a one-point margin was 12 years ago. Mayfield has played in just two games in his 93-game career that was decided by one point, and his team won them both. We’re interested in plus odds with Tampa Bay. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Top Player Props

Bijan Robinson

Robinson has come out of the backfield for 21, 25, 43, and 46 yards in the Falcons’ four games. That’s a winning strategy against a Bucs defense that is fueled by DT Vita Vea. Only the Bills have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Buccaneers. Back the Over on Bijan yards at BetMGM. 

NFL Odds: Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Kirk Cousins 

The Bucs have allowed over 230 pass yards just once. But consider the opposition: Jayden Daniels in his first pro game, Bo Nix and an Eagles team missing both star WRs. The other game was against a Lions offense with weapons, and Jared Goff went for 324. Cousins has thrown for 230-plus yards in three of four games. Look for the Over here at Caesars. 

NFL Odds: Over 229.5 Pass Yards (-112) at BetMGM