AFC North rivals heading in opposite directions face off on Thursday Night Football for Week 12, as Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns host Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The Steelers (8-2) have won five in a row, just knocked off the Ravens on Sunday, and lead the AFC North by 1.5 games. The Browns (2-8) have just one win since edging the Jaguars in Week 2.

Pittsburgh is at -3.5 on the road in the latest Steelers vs. Browns NFL Odds, with an Over/Under of 36.5 points, easily the lowest total of Week 12.

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 60.2% of his NFL picks five years running, reveals his plays for Thursday Night Football Week 12.

Steelers vs. Browns Betting Predictions

Steelers vs. Browns Point Spread

The Cleveland defense has regressed and Nick Chubb has not been the answer for an unproductive run game. So now they must totally rely on Jameis Winston. In Cleveland’s last two games, it was +2 and -1 on the board and lost by 17 and 21 points. 

This is only the third time Pittsburgh has been at -3 or more; the Steelers won those games by 19 and 8. The Steelers can build a lead and rely on a run game late against a Browns D that gave up 214 on the ground to the Saints last week. Jump on Pittsburgh as the top play for Thursday night.

Steelers vs. Browns Over/Under

Weather is playing a factor in this ultra-low NFL total of 36.5. Winds in Cleveland are expected to be around 20 mpg consistently – and might be more right on the lakeshore where this stadium sits – with a rain/snow mix possible as well.

We’re buying into what’s setting up as a low-scoring affair. Cleveland has managed over 20 points just one time all season, and it’s difficult to imagine a second time here with the wind and with the aggressive Steelers defense waiting for mistake-prone Winston. Pittsburgh is better suited for a grinder. Half of its games have finished with 37 or fewer points. Back the Under as a solid secondary play.

Steelers vs. Browns Moneyline

Favored Pittsburgh is -198 on the moneyline, so a $198 wager would earn $100 in profit on a Steeler straight-up win. Conversely, Cleveland is at +164 (wager $100 to win $164). We like the Steelers to cover at -3.5, but what about just winning at these odds? 

It’s somewhat high, but worth consideration. Pittsburgh is winning games, but has created a bad habit of letting subpar teams back into games. Half of its victories this season have been by a field goals or less. Given the matchups on this night, we still prefer the spread at -110.

Steelers vs. Browns Top Player Props

Jameis Winston, Over 19.5 Completions

Whipping winds aren’t going to help the QBs on Thursday night, which is why the O/U on yards is very low for both Winston and Wilson. But the Browns have to do something when they have the ball, and running (Pittsburgh ranks fourth vs. the run, Cleveland 29th in running it) doesn’t sound viable. Wilson has tossed it 40-plus times in his three games, completing 26-30 in each. Look for higher-rate dumpoffs in lieu of trying to run on this Steelers front. 

NFL Odds: +100 at DraftKings

George Pickens, Over 4.5 Receptions 

The weather may be tricky, but Pickens can be that possession receiver when needed. Last week vs. the Ravens he averaged just 11.1 yards per reception but had eight of them for 89 yards. Look for a similar experience against a Browns defense that must focus on the run, has been gashed by the pass, and could be missing two of its top three cornerbacks. 

NFL Odds: +115 at BetMGM