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Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today For Week 11: Chiefs-Bills Classic?

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 5 mins

Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today For Week 11: Chiefs-Bills Classic?

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Week 11 of the NFL betting brings us the latest “Game of the Year” as the Buffalo Bills play host to the 9-0, two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes and Company haven’t lost since Christmas. Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as a betting underdog. 


RELATED: Oldest + Youngest Teams In The NFL


NFL odds have Mahomes and Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs. The total is 46 points 

We'll take a look at some player props from that game and a few others. 

Bookies.com Senior Betting Analyst Bill Speros gives his best player prop bets on sports betting apps throughout the NFL season.

Best NFL Week 11 Player Props: Odds & Picks

Kareem Hunt
Player Prop Wager Odds
Patrick Mahomes Under 21.5 Yards Rushing -110 DraftKings
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD -115 FanDuel
Kareem Hunt
1st TD +600 FanDuel
James Cook Anytime TD +100 FanDuel
James Cook Over 78.5 Rush/Rec Yards -115 bet365
Dawson Knox Over 25 Receiving Yards -125 bet365
Russell Wilson Over 226.5 Passing Yards -115 DraftKings

Best NFL Week 11 Player Props: Analysis

Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today For Week 11: Chiefs-Bills Classic? 1

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Under 21.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 DraftKings

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes should have Isiah Pacheco in the backfield along with Kareem Hunt. That should push him under this number, given that he’ll have fewer carries with his 2 top rushers in the backfield. Mahomes could get this number on just one play, but he’ll likely take a few sacks, as well. And he’s surprisingly gone under this number in KC’s past 3 games. Only 3 QBs have run for more than 21.5 yards against the Bills this season: C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. 


Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt: Anytime TD

Odds: -115 FanDuel

Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt: First TD

Odds: +600 FanDuel

Best Bet: The Chiefs get a boost in the backfield with Isiah Pacheco expected to be back with Kareem Hunt this week. That’s why we’re a bit wary of either’s rushing totals. But Hunt has become a reliable and key go-to for Patrick Mahomes deep in the red zone. He’s scored at least once in 4 of KC’s past 5 games. And he’s scored the first TD in 3 of his past 4 road appearances. And without Harrison Butker, the Chiefs will be more field-goal averse than normal. Increasing the chance for scores elsewhere.


Buffalo RB James Cook: Anytime TD

Odds: +100 FanDuel

Buffalo RB James Cook: Over 78.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 bet365

Best Bet: As the Bills and Josh Allen stabilized their offense this season, James Cook has emerged as a reliable ball carrier who can find the end zone when asked. He’s scored at least one TD in 4 of his past 5 games. Cook has 128 carries for 576 yards and 8 TDs. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per touch. He’s been shown to be effective against the Chiefs, as well, averaging 4.2 yards per carry over 30 tries. The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy against the run. But the mobility of Allen will open things up for Cook – whether via ground or the air. 


Bills TE Dawson Knox: Over 25 Receiving Yards

Odds: -125 bet365

Best Bet: Josh Allen’s main target at tight end (Dalton Kincaid) is out with a knee injury. Amari Cooper won’t be 100%. He’ll be bogged down by KC’s secondary. That leaves James Cook (above) and old reliable Dawson Knox. Allen found Kincaid 34 times for 356 yards in the Bills’ first 10 games, averaging 5.9 targets. That opens up a large opportunity for Knox here. The Chiefs’ defense is vulnerable in the soft middle. They’ve allowed 22 catches for 210 yards against opposing tight ends in their past 3 games. Knox will be open. 


Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson: Over 226.5 Yards Passing

Odds: -115 DraftKings

Buzz: The Steelers sit atop the AFC North, a game ahead of Baltimore in the loss column. The total in this game is 48.5. Thanks to the Steelers offense for that beefy total. It’s been on a roll since Russell Wilson began to cook. He’s averaged 245.6 passing yards in his 3 starts with the Steelers. He has thrown for at least 264 yards in his past 3 games at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have beaten the Ravens in 5 straight games as betting underdogs. By the way, the Ravens have the worst passing secondary in the NFL. 


 

 

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.