Gardner Minshew NFL Rookie of the Year Betting Odds Shorten
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Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew has skyrocketed up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds charts. But should we buy or sell the Jaguars quarterback for the honor? Is it too late to find value in the charismatic Washington State product?
Minshew wasn’t expected to play much in 2019 after being drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. Jacksonville had invested considerable funds in acquiring Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to start this season and beyond. But Foles (shoulder) was lost for the season in Week 1 and Minshew was thrown into the fire. He responded admirably, going 22-for-25 passing for 275 yards and two TDs in a loss to the Chiefs.
Since then, Minshew had led the Jaguars to a 2-1 record including consecutive victories over the Titans and Broncos.
After Week 2, Minshew was a +2500 darkhorse to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at DraftKings. After Week 3, that number plummeted to +800.
And after Sunday’s come-from-behind win at Denver? Now he’s at +250, tied with Giants QB Daniel Jones and just ahead of Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
|Daniel Jones, NYG||+250|
|Gardner Minshew, JAX||+250|
|Kyler Murray, ARZ||+400|
|Marquise Brown, BAL||+800|
|Josh Jacobs, OAK||+1000|
|David Montgomery, CHI||+1200|
|Terry McLaurin, WSH||+1600|
|Miles Sanders, PHI||+1600|
|A.J. Brown, TEN||+2500|
|D.K. Metcalf, SEA||+2500|
|Dwayne Haskins, WSH||+3300|
Odds are from DraftKings and are accurate at time of publication but are subject to change
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NFL Rookie of the Year Competition
To decide whether Minshew is worth a ticket, let’s look at his top competitors for the award.
Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick and the prohibitive early favorite to win the award, as low as +200 at one point.
But the Cardinals have yet to win a game and Murray has completed only 62.7% of his passes with four and touchdowns and four interceptions. His 78.8 QB rating is by far the worst among the three rookie QB contenders.
Daniel Jones is 2-0 as a starter for the Giants, completing 69% with three TDs and two INTs and a rating of 95.9. His spot in the New York market and the heir to Eli Manning give him an intangible boost.
Statistically, Minshew trumps them both in a big way. He has seven TDs to one INT with a solid 106.9 rating. His 69.4% completion rate is tops among the three as well.
And Minshew has been clutch. On Sunday he led the Jaguars with two long drives in the second half, including one in the final minutes leading to the winning field goal on the game’s last play against the broncos in Denver.
THE MINSHEW MAGIC IS REAL.— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2019
He avoids the sack multiple times and throws for the TD! @GardnerMinshew5 #JAXvsDEN #DUUUVAL
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/lm0vvtP8ei pic.twitter.com/WeJVm6WQaI
If team success helps the cause -- and often it does, especially for QBs -- Minshew is supported by a better defense than Jones or Murray. Minshew might be the only one in the playoff race by Week 12.
Minshew’s criticism revolves around a pedestrian 7.5 yards per attempt. But that’s far better than Murray’s 6.3 (Jones is at 8.1).
Murray will likely put up bigger stats by the time the season is over – he's averaging 42 attempts per game, while Minshew and Jones are in the low 30s.
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Wait-and-See Approach on NFL Rookie Odds
Minshew has proven he’s up to the task of being a rookie QB starter. His stats are on par or better than Murray and Jones and his likelihood of team success is stronger.
But at +250 odds, we’re not getting much value.
Wait a week. The Jaguars take on the Panthers, who have the No. 1-ranked pass defense in the NFL. If Minshew is going to struggle, this Sunday might be the week he takes a step back.
If the odds rise, jump on that Minshew bet. The Jaguars don’t face a top-10 passing defense again until Week 14. Four of the following seven defenses remaining on Jacksonville’s schedule are ranked 20th or worse. Minshew will be there in the end and if he leads the Jaguars to playoff contention, he’s a good bet to take home some hardware.