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UFC 300 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Pereira vs. Hill

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 13 mins

UFC 300 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Pereira vs. Hill

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The deepest UFC card of all time goes down this Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada when UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill goes down. It is not hyperbole to say this is the most stacked card they have ever put on. There are 13 fights in total – including three title fights – on this card, and there are 10 current or former UFC champions set to compete. 

It is going to be a crazy card, and we are here to help you win some money betting on this incredible event. For our UFC 300 preview, check out my breakdowns of the three title fights on the card in the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets.

UFC 300 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Pereira vs. Hill

Favorite Underdog
Alex Pereira | -130 Jamahal Hill | +110

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC 300 Main Event Best Bet

UFC 300 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Alex Pereira (-130) vs. Jamahal Hill (+110)

The main event of UFC 300 features UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira making his first title defense against former champ Jamahal Hill. Although Hill is a +110 underdog, I like him to pull off the upset here and win his belt back.

Pereira is 36 and he is 6-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian has won UFC titles in two divisions, first winning the middleweight belt before moving up to light heavyweight and winning the belt in a heavier weight class. Ever since joining the UFC in 2021, Pereira has been incredible to watch. His striking is elite, with exceptional technique meeting knockout power, plus his grappling has been better than expected. 

He has the power to knock out anyone in the world in his division, and it’s exciting to watch. That being said, Hill is an excellent fighter in his own right, and the books know it as this fight is very close according to the odds. For Pereira to win, he will likely have to knock Hill out, which is easier said than done considering he’s never been KOed before.

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Hill is 32 and he is 7-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American is one of the best fighters to have ever competed on Dana White’s Contender Series and he has been very special since first joining the UFC in 2020. Hill has shown off huge knockout power with five wins by TKO in the UFC alone, plus he has also displayed some very good grappling skills as well. 

He has only lost once in the UFC in a fight where he was injured against Paul Craig during a submission attempt against him. Other than that, Hill has looked great in the Octagon. He is coming off a long layoff into this fight after vacating his belt due to a serious Achilles injury. After a year out of the cage, Hill is now back and ready to prove to the world that he is still the best in the world at 205 lbs.

This should be an incredible main event between two fantastic fighters. Pereira has been phenomenal ever since he entered the UFC, winning titles in two different weight classes, but Hill presents a difficult challenge given how well-rounded he is. Not only can Hill hang with Pereira on the feet, but he should also be able to take him to the ground and control him there. 

Given Hill appears to have more ways to win, I believe he should be the favorite in this fight. Not only do I think Hill has a big edge on the ground, but I also think he can do damage standing. I’m going with Hill to get the upset as a +110 underdog, and I like him to win it by knockout.

UFC 300 Best Bet: Jamahal Hill wins at +110 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 300 Best Prop Bet: Jamahal Hill wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

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UFC 300 Best Bets

UFC 300 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Weili Zhang (-485) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+370)

The co-main event of UFC 300 sees UFC women’s strawweight champion Weili Zhang defend her belt against Yan Xiaonan. Zhang is a heavy -485 favorite, and I like her to win this fight.

Zhang is 34 and she is 8-2 in the UFC. The Chinese fighter came out of the gates quickly, winning her first five UFC fights between 2018 and 2019, becoming the UFC women’s strawweight champion in the process. However, she then ran into Rose Namajunas, who beat her twice. Since the losses to Namajunas, Zhang has won three fights in a row and she won her belt back from Carla Esparza. Not only is she still showing off powerful striking in her fights, but she has also displayed an elite ground game, making her one of the world’s most well-rounded women’s MMA fighters, and someone who is rightfully a big favorite here to defend her title.

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 Xiaonan is 34 and she is 8-2 in the UFC. The Chinese fighter joined the UFC in 2017 and she won her first six fights in the Octagon before running into the aforementioned Esparza and getting destroyed. That was followed up by a close split decision loss to Marina Rodriguez in her next fight, but she has bounced back with two straight wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern to earn this title shot. Against Zhang, Xiaonan will look to keep the fight standing as that is her best path to victory. The problem is her takedown defense is mediocre, and if Zhang can take her down to the mat, it’s hard to see Xiaonan standing a chance here.

I thought for sure the UFC was going to have this all-Chinese matchup as the main event of a card in China, but instead, we get it in Las Vegas. Xiaonan is a very good striker, but Zhang is far more well-rounded and she has a dominant ground game. I see Zhang taking Xianonan to the ground whenever she wants in this fight, landing heavy ground and pounds, and eventually getting the stoppage. Go with Zhang to win at -485, and take her to win this fight by knockout.

UFC 300 Best Bet: Weili Zhang wins at -485 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 300 Best Prop Bet: Weili Zhang wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

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UFC 300 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Justin Gaethje (-175) vs. Max Holloway (+145)

The third title fight at UFC 300 features Justin Gaethje against Max Holloway for the BMF title, which Gaethje currently holds. Gaethje is a -175 favorite, and I like him to defend his title.

Gaethje is 35 and he is 8-4 in the UFC. The American joined the world’s ultimate proving grounds in 2017 and he immediately became a fan favorite due to his entertaining fight style. In 12 UFC fights, he has won 12 post-fight bonuses, proving how exciting he is to watch. He is a devastating striker who has won six fights by knockout, and he is still improving as a fighter. Defensively, he has holes in his game and he’s been finished in all of his losses, but there is no doubt he is elite offensively. He has fought the best of the best since first stepping foot in the Octagon, and it continues here at UFC 300 when he takes on another legend in Holloway. Gaetje is a former interim UFC lightweight champion, and he badly still wants to be undisputed.

Holloway is 32 and he is 21-7 in the UFC. The Hawaiian joined the UFC in 2012 and he has become one of the best fighters in the world over the last decade-plus, and a sure-fire UFC Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done. He is one of the most gifted volume strikers we have ever seen in the UFC and he has one of the best chins of all time, having never been knocked out. 

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He is hittable, but he still finds a way to win. For the most part, his only losses have come to elite fighters, and he’s beaten pretty much everyone else in his path. The big question here for Holloway is how he looks at 155 lbs considering most of his career has been at 145 lbs, where he was a dominant champion. It’s certainly an interesting question to ask, especially since he will now be taking on one of the lightweight division’s toughest fighters in the form of Gaethje.

This should be an amazing fight between two of the most exciting strikers to ever step into the Octagon. That being said, I like Gaethje here because he is the stalwart of the UFC lightweight division, whereas Holloway is still an unknown at this weight class. As good as Holloway is at featherweight, lightweight is a different beast as the fighters in this weight class hit harder, especially Gaethje. I see this being an all-out war between two legends, but I like Gaethje to do more damage throughout and get the win in this bout. Go with Gaethje to win this fight as a -175 favorite, and take him to win this fight by TKO. With Dana White announcing $300,000 bonuses, I don't see this fight going the full five rounds.

UFC 300 Best Bet: Justin Gaethje wins at -175 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 300 Best Prop Bet: Justin Gaethje wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.