The greatest MMA fighter of all time returns to the Octagon this Saturday night at UFC 309 when Jon Jones takes on Stipe Miocic for the UFC heavyweight title. The card features 14 fights in total, and I will be breaking down the best UFC picks for the main event and two undercard bouts in the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets.

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

UFC 309 Odds: Jon Jones (-625) vs. Stipe Miocic (+455)

The UFC heavyweight title is on the line when champion Jon Jones takes on former champ Stipe Miocic. Jones is a -625 favorite at the top sports betting apps and I am going with the champ to defend his belt.

Jones is 37 and is 21-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American is the UFC heavyweight champion and the former long-time UFC light heavyweight champion. Generally regarded as the greatest MMA fighter to ever live, Jones has been exciting audiences and smashing his foes inside the Octagon ever since debuting in the UFC back in 2008. He has fought and defeated everyone in his path over the last 15-plus years, with his only defeat being a controversial DQ defeat back in 2010. 

Jones has incredible grappling, one of the highest fight IQs ever, and one of the best chins of all time, having never been knocked down in his entire UFC career. He has dealt with numerous issues outside of the cage which have derailed his career at times, but due to his natural talent, he always overcomes everything and finds a way to win inside of the cage.

Miocic is 42 and is 14-4 in the UFC. The American is the former UFC heavyweight champion and the current No. 8 ranked heavyweight. Miocic is arguably the best heavyweight in UFC history as he’s held the title twice and is looking for a third reign with an upset win over Jones. He has fought and defeated many of the best heavyweights to ever step into the Octagon, often with his fantastic boxing skills backed up by stout takedown defense. He’s never had the best chin, having been knocked out three times, but he makes up for it with a high fight IQ that allows him to get out of bad spots. Miocic is an incredible fighter, but he is 42 years old and he hasn’t fought in nearly four years, two factors making this matchup against Jones even more difficult.

The odds seem steep here, but at the same time, it’s impossible to pick against Jones, who is the greatest fighter in UFC history. That being said, I think Miocic is going to be more competitive than people think, and I could see this fight going the full 25 minutes. 

Regardless, go with Jones to win as a -625 favorite, and look for the prop on Jones to win by decision.

UFC 309 Best Bet: Jon Jones wins at -625 with DraftKings Sportsbook .

UFC 309 Odds: Karine Silva (-278) vs. Viviane Araujo (+225)

At women’s flyweight, we have Karine Silva against Viviane Araujo. Silva is a -278 favorite, and I like her to come away with her fifth straight UFC victory.

Silva is 30 and is 4-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian is the No. 11 ranked women’s flyweight in the UFC. She won a UFC contract after picking up a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, and she has won all four of her UFC fights since making her promotion debut in 2022, winning three by submission. She is dangerous on the ground and is still young and improving. Silva has all the makings of a contender and a win here over Araujo would help her jump into the top 10 and keep moving closer to the division's elite and a potential title shot.

Araujo is 37 and is 6-5 in the UFC. The Brazilian is the No. 9 ranked women’s flyweight and has been a very solid fighter in the weight class since first joining the UFC in 2019. Although her overall record is close to even, she has fought a high level of competition and proven she can hang with the best fighters in the UFC, having never been finished in the Octagon. She has very good striking and has proven she can go the distance many times. However, she lacks in finishing ability and her ground game is not the best either, making her beatable in the cage.

Silva is the real deal and has been on a roll as of late, carrying a ton of momentum into this matchup. Even though Araujo has solid takedown defense in general, I don’t think it will be enough for her to stop Silva from taking her down at key points in the fight. However, it might be enough to get Araujo to the final bell. 

Still, I’ll take Silva to win as a -278 favorite, and she likely does so by decision.

UFC 309 Best Bet: Karine Silva wins at  -278 with DraftKings Sportsbook .

UFC 309 Odds: Damon Jackson (-170) vs. Jim Miller (+142)

When Damon Jackson takes on Jim Miller, veterans battle it out in the UFC lightweight division. Jackson is a -170 favorite, and I like him to get his hand raised.

Jackson is 36 and is 6-6-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American has had two separate stints in the UFC, going 0-1, 1 NC the first time around, and 6-5 in his second stint, which began in 2020. Jackson is an extremely experienced fighter who has fought tough opponents his whole career. He excels on the ground with his submission game and he also has knockout power on the feet. His durability isn’t the best, although his chin should hold up better now that he’s a lightweight.

Miller is 41 and is 26-17, 1 NC in the UFC. The American has been in the UFC since 2008, making him one of the most experienced fighters on the roster and likely a future UFC Hall of Famer. He holds the UFC record for wins at 26 and will look to extend that record with another win here over Jackson. Miller is one of the most dangerous lightweights as he possesses incredible submission skills and sneaky knockout power on the feet. That being said, he is also getting up there in age and he’s never had the best gas tank, either. Miller is a legend of the game, but after getting beaten badly by King Green in his last fight, he could be on the decline.

Jackson has stated in interviews that cutting down to 145 lbs was killing his body, and I believe it. I like this move up to 155 lbs for him at this point in his career and believe the move up in weight will help him defeat the aging Miller and get back into the win column. Miller is still durable at age 41, so I’ll take Jackson to win this fight by decision as a -170 favorite.

UFC 309 Best Bet: Damon Jackson wins at -170 with DraftKings Sportsbook .