The Octagon travels back to Farmasi Arena, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this Saturday for UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg. The main event features UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja taking on Steve Erceg, with 13 bouts on the undercard. As always, I will give my pick for the headliner plus two other bouts in the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets.

Check out Adam Martin's breakdowns of the three title fights on the card in the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets.

UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps. Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet

UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Alexandre Pantoja (-205) vs. Steve Erceg (+170)

The main event of UFC 301 sees UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defend his title against Steve Erceg. Pantoja is a -205 favorite, and I like him to defend his title successfully.

Pantoja is 34 and he is 11-3 in the UFC. The Brazilian has been in the UFC for a very long time and he has had a ton of success over the years, including winning the UFC flyweight title. He has fought and beaten many of the best flyweights in the sport, including Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, and Alex Kape. He is a well-rounded fighter who has fantastic wrestling, slick submissions, and some knockout power on the feet. Pantoja has fought the best of the best so far in the UFC and, for the most part, has passed all of the tests that have been put in front of him. Fighting back home Brazil here is a huge opportunity for him to get a star-making win.

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Erceg is 28 and he is 3-0 in the UFC. The Aussie is a very dangerous fighter who has quickly moved up the UFC flyweight ladder. He has been in the UFC for less than a year and already has a title shot under his belt. While he has looked great so far in the UFC, the level of competition he has fought pales compared to this matchup against a champion in Pantoja. Erceg has the knockdown power and the wrestling skills necessary to make at least things competitive, but the lack of big-fight experience seems like something difficult for him to overcome. If Erceg had a few more UFC fights first, he would likely be better prepared here.

I like Erceg but this feels like too much, too soon for the Aussie. Pantoja has so much experience inside the Octagon that he will do enough to win. Look for Pantoja to be the more effective striker and grappler throughout and to win on the scorecards. Take Pantoja at -345 to win and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC 301: Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja wins at  -205 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 301: Best Prop Bet: Alexandre Pantoja wins via decision with  DraftKings Sportsbook

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UFC 301 Main Event Best Bets

UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Jonathan Martinez (-162) vs. Jose Aldo (+136)

The co-main event of UFC 301 sees Jonathan Martinez take on Jose Aldo at bantamweight. Martinez is a -162 betting favorite, and I like him to get the nod here for the biggest win of his career to date.

Martinez is 30 and he is 10-3 overall in the UFC. The American started his UFC career with an inconsistent 4-3 record, but in the last three years, he has a perfect 6-0 record in the Octagon and has been destroying everyone in his path. He is one of the top strikers in the UFC bantamweight division and he has been showing off his skills in all his fights. He is one of the most dangerous standup artists, and if he can defend takedowns, he can go far in this sport. This is the biggest fight of his career to date, but I believe this is a fight that he can win.

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Aldo is 37 and he is 13-7 overall in the UFC. The Brazilian is the former UFC featherweight champion and is one of the best fighters in MMA history. We have seen Aldo fight for years and we know that he is one of the best strikers with excellent takedown defense. 

That being said, he is getting up there in age, and he is coming off a two-year retirement in MMA. Yes, he did some pro boxing on the side, but the UFC is a different beast. If this were Aldo from a few years ago, he would likely be favored. But given his age, it’s very difficult for him to come back and win this fight. Even though he is fighting in Brazil, this oddly enough looks like the UFC wants to build up Martinez with a massive win. Then again, Aldo is a legend of MMA and has a ton of experience.

Even though Aldo is a legend, I like Martinez here. He’s in the prime of his career and I believe he matches up well against Aldo to get his hand raised. Look for Martinez to be the more effective striker throughout 15 minutes and get the victory. Take Martinez at -162 to win and if you want to bet on a prop, take him by decision.

UFC 301 Best Bet: Jonathan Martinez wins  -162 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 301 Best Prop Bet: Jonathan Martinez wins via decision with DraftKings Sportsbook

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UFC 301 Main Event Best Bet Odds: Michel Pereira (-500) vs. Ihor Potieria (+380)

Also on the main card is a middleweight fight between Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria. Pereira is a -500 favorite, and I favor him to increase his win streak to eight straight fights with a finish.

Pereira is 30 and he is 8-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian has been in the UFC for five years now and he has performed well in two weight classes – first at welterweight, where he was 6-2, and now at middleweight, where he is 2-0. Pereira is very well-rounded and an extremely dangerous fighter who can knock his standing opponents out and submit them on the ground. He is very fast, and when pacing himself, he has the cardio to go the distance. Pereira, in many ways, is a dark horse contender at middleweight. Another big win will help him move up the ladder. He should win this fight and win it with flying colors.

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Potieria is 27 and he is 2-3 in the UFC. The Ukrainian is a striker and he holds a notable knockout win over UFC legend Shogun. While that was a big win for him, he was brutally knocked out in his three other losses in the Octagon. He did pick up a decision win over UFC newcomer Robert Bryczek in his last fight, which was his middleweight debut after moving down in weight, but overall he hasn’t been that impressive in the UFC. Keep in mind that Potieria is taking this fight on short notice after Makhmud Muradov, which is not exactly favorable to him. Plus, he has to fly down to Brazil and take on one of the country’s top fighters.

Look for Pereira to come out explosively, find the chin of Potieria, and put him out early in the first round. Take Pereira to win at -500 and take him to win by TKO for a prop.

UFC 301 Best Bet: Michel Pereira wins at -500 with DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC 301 Best Prop Bet: Michel Pereira wins via TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook

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