2024 Cheltenham Festival Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends

Before you place your bets on the Cheltenham Festival with your favourite horse racing betting sites, check out the trends of the last 10 winners of the renewal of this race.

The last 10 winners

• Were largely not bred in France (French-breds are 1/32, L'Homme Presse getting that win in 2022)
• Had run in 2-5 novice chases
• Had run in a Graded race, eight winning. Three of the last four winners had won Grade 1s.
• Had two or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days
• Did not run in a handicap chase last time out
• Had won at least one hurdle race
• Had run at Cheltenham before, seven winning

Nine of the last 10 winners

• Won, or were beaten no more than three lengths, last time out (exception Champ, who fell)
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase (exception Might Bite ran in a Grade 1 previously)
• Had won on a left-handed track (exception Topofthegame)
• Had won over at least 3m before (exception L’Homme Presse)

Key Trials from the last 10 years

• Two winners in the last 10 years had won the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase in February at Leopardstown (Bostons Angel and Monkfish). 2018 winner Monalee was placed and a further four runners went on to be placed in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase in 2022, 2021, 2017 and 2013. Fact To File won the race in 2024.
• Two winners of the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival have gone on to win the Brown Advisory - Monkfish and Don Poli - with a further three runners in that race going on to place in 2021, 2019 and 2014. The 2023 winner was Grangeclare West.
• 2022 winner L'Homme Presse was winner of both the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown, and the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham, which 2021 winner Champ also ran in and 2023 winner The Real Whacker won. Gerri Colombe won the 2023 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase.
• Ascot's Grade 1 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase in February is another worth keeping an eye on as winner O'faolains Boy and runner-up Bobs Worth went on to win this Cheltenham race.

Trainer Trends

• Willie Mullins has saddled two winners and four placed horses from 16 runners in the past 10 years and overall is the race's winning-most trainer with five winners.
• Nicky Henderson has two wins and four placings from just 14 runners in the past 10 years. He has saddled four winners in his career.
• Paul Nicholls has a winner and one placing from seven runners in the past 10 renewals but overall has three winners.
• Gordon Elliott is currently 0/6 in this race, but two of those six did place.

Jockey Trends

There are no real jockey trends of note, with the only multiple winners in the last 10 years now retired.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

The Dipper Novices' Chase winner The Real Whacker was the number one trends pick, ticking all the key boxes, including having won his last two starts at Cheltenham to remain unbeaten over fences. The latest was on New Year's Day, giving him that key recent run, though one negative was that he had only run twice over fences, where three or more is optimum.

He won, beating Gerri Colombe by a short head. Ordinarily, he would have been ruled out due to the very reliable trend of French-bred horses failing to score. However, after L’Homme Presse got a first win since 2006 for that cohort, he was short-listed as a very promising individual.

He had a very similar profile to L’Homme Presse, being unbeaten over fences, hurdles and in bumpers, with his Scilly Isles Novices' Chase win giving him two Grade 1s over fences. He'd won on plenty of galloping courses, and racing left-handed.

The 50/1 shot Bronn finished third, having run twice over fences and never won over 3m. 

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2024?

Applying the trends whittles the field down to three of interest, leading with the Cotswold Chase third Stay Away Fay, who had previously won a Grade 2 over 2m at Sandown. It is a concern he was beaten by more than three lengths last time out, as it is a key trend that most win. But don’t forget he is also last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner.

Warwick Grade 2 winner Grey Dawning also ticks all the trends boxes, including boasting a close Cheltenham second two runs ago, while Grangeclare West completes the trends picks for Willie Mullins. He won the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, and it is very unclear what his Festival target is, but he fits the bill for this one.