How Much Would You Make Betting On Kirk Cousins Each Week?
Kirk Cousins has mastered mediocrity. At least when it comes to those who care about NFL betting. The Vikings, too, continue to drift aimlessly against the spread week-to-week. Will an offseason full of change bring a different result in 2021? We’ll begin to know starting Sept. 12.
Cousins made news this summer when he went public with his decision not to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. While that does not directly impact his ability to play, it does raise the possibility of him getting a positive test, and thus, becoming sidelined. The Vikings are on the hook to pay Cousins $21 million this season and $35 million in 2022. The team faces a $45 million cap hit next season courtesy of the QB whether they keep Cousins or not.
”You like that!” Vikings.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Cousins performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Cousins is 54-52-1 ATS as an NFL starter. That almost exactly matches his 52-53-2 overall mark in 107 career starts. That number includes Cousins’ three playoff appearances.
Backing Cousins A Losing Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Cousins ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed Cousins in his career are down $291.40. That’s a lot better than the then-Washington Redskins and Vikings. They will have paid him a combined $196 million by the end of 2022. Between those two teams, they have just one playoff victory to show for their investment thus far.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Cousins has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Vikings were a disappointing 7-9 last season. They remain an afterthought in the NFC North. To change that, Minnesota reconstructed much of its defense, in large part without doing anything. Nose tackle Michael Pierce (COVID-19 opt out) and defensive end Danielle Hunter (neck injury) are back and fully healthy after not playing in 2020. The Vikings also added Dalvin Thomlinson to the D-line via free agency from the NY Giants and nabbed veteran Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson to add a leadership component to the back end of the defense.
Oddsmakers are not impressed and see the Vikings as a longshot/no-shot, according to the latest Super Bowl odds. Minnesota is priced at +5000 with DraftKings to win it all. That same site has the Vikings at +2200 to win the NFC , and +250 to win the NFC North . The Packers are favored to take the North at -160..
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for the Vikings and Cousins. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Vikings do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 9 Wins||-105 at DraftKings|
|Under 9 Wins||-110 at DraftKings|
|Over 8.5 Wins||-160 at FanDuel|
|Under 8.5 Wins||+135 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+115 at DraftKings|
|No||-115 at FanDuel|
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The Vikings are back in the middle again here with their 2021 fault line sitting at 9 victories. The Vikings have the fifth toughest schedule this season in the NFL, based on their opponents’ combined 2020 winning percentage. Out of the division, they face the Chargers, Ravens and 49ers on the road and battle the Seahawks and Rams at home. Those five games, plus the traditional matchups with Green Bay and Chicago, will determine if Vikings clear 9.5 wins and make the playoffs.
We’re leaning toward the upside here given the improvements on Minnesota’s defense and Cousins’ play in 2020. Go with the over on 8.5 wins at -160 at FanDuel for the Vikings in 2021, and back them to make the playoffs at +115 at DraftKings .
Kirk Cousins 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Kirk Cousins Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Cousins this season:
|Kirk Cousins Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 28.5||-110 at DraftKings|
|Under 28.5||-120 at DraftKings|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Cousins overperformed last season in terms of individual stats, especially given how poorly the Vikings played in general. He tore it up, throwing for 4,265 yards (8th best in the NFL), 35 TDs (6th best) and completed 67.6% of his attempts (9th best). This came against just 13 interceptions. His season QB rating was 105. Impressive numbers considering that Minnesota’s defense ranked 28th in points allowed and 26th and yards surrendered per game.
Why just a steep slide projected for Cousins this season? The Vikings offensive line was terrible last season and lost veteran Riley Reiff to the Browns via free-agency. It’s the great unknown here. Dalvin Cook is a legit threat to join the 2000-yard rushing club and will get even more carries as things get worse. That means a greater propensity to run it inside the Red Zone. And Cousins is great – until he faces pressure. Then calamity awaits.
Take the under on Cousins throwing 28.5 TD passes at -110 with DraftKings .
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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Cousins this season:
|Over 4,050.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Under 4,050.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|Over 4200.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under 4200.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
Another projected drop-off for the same reasons noted above. However, there is room for Cousins to hit this number. He throws a good ball, when not strip-sacked. Justin Jefferson stockpiled 1,400 yards receiving as a rookie but played like a 10-year pro last season. He’s only 21. His upside is massive. Adam Thielen, who scored 14 TDs last year, is a real threat to go over 1,000 yards receiving, as well.
The key here is for Cousins to be consistent across all 17 games, not just 9 or 10. Take Cousins to go over 4,050.5 yards passing at -112 at DraftKings .
NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 24th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Mayfield compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield