How Much Would You Make Betting On Justin Herbert Each Week?
Bill Speros | 18 mins
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Justin Herbert was +2000 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of The Year after being taken with the sixth overall pick by the Chargers in the 2020 draft, so said the NFL betting experts and oddsmakers. While Herbert was a stellar Pac-12 passer at Oregon, the Chargers were set at the time with Tyrod Taylor at QB. But a week into the season, Taylor was gone due to injury and the Chargers were Herbert’s team.
By the end of the 2021 season, Herbert had lit up defenses across the league, thrown for more than 4,000 yards, firmed up his role as the Chargers QB of the future and locked down NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Herbert handsomely rewarded those who backed him early.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Herbert performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Herbert was 8-7 against the spread in his 15 starts for the Bolts last season. That was a slight improvement over his 6-9 record overall.
Backing Herbert A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Herbert ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Chargers in his 15 starts last year ended up ahead by $27.20. Just enough for a case of Miller Lite and chips for the Bolts' Sept. 12 opener at Washington.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Herbert has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Chargers (7-9 overall last year) remain eclipsed by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. After Herbert took the internal QB headset, the Chargers stumbled in 2020 and compounded a series of inexplicable and excruciating losses. Two of those defeats came in overtime, against the Chiefs and Saints.
Herbert made plenty of mistakes, but also managed to impress as the season progressed. In their final nine games, the Chargers only committed seven turnovers. LA closed out the season with four straight wins, setting higher expectations for 2021. None of that was enough for head coach Anthony Lynn to keep his job.
Oddsmakers still see the Chargers as a long shot to win their first championship this season. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, LA is priced at +3000 with DraftKings ➜ to win it all. That same site has the Chargers at +1600 to win the AFC ➜, and +450 to win the AFC West ➜. The Chiefs are favored at DraftKings to win the division again at -250.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Herbert and the Chargers. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Chargers do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 9.5 Wins||+115 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 9.5 Wins||-135 at DraftKings ➜|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+126 at FanDuel ➜|
|No||-125 at DraftKings ➜|
Odds via FanDuel ➜ and DraftKings ➜, and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.
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Herbert will try to avoid the sophomore jinx with a new head coach in Brandon Staley and a new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi. The Chargers solidified their biggest offensive concern in the offseason by completely overhauling the starting offensive line. The biggest acquisition was center Corey Linsley, who signed as a free agent from the Packers. He’ll be joined by fellow newcomers first-round pick Rashawn Slater, Oday Aboushi (Lions), Matt Feiler (Steelers) and returning tackle Bryan Bulaga. But they lost TE Hunter Henry to the Patriots.
Still, 10 wins is a lot to ask here, especially with two games against the Chiefs, road games at Baltimore and Washington, and home matchups against the Patriots and Browns. Those games against Cleveland, Baltimore and New England will be pivotal in the Chargers making the postseason, since they may be involved in a tiebreaker at the end of the season with one or more of those teams. Go with the under on 9.5 wins at -135 at DraftKings ➜ for the Chargers in 2021, and back them to miss the playoffs at -125 at DraftKings ➜.
Justin Herbert 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Herbet, and how best to play them this season.
Justin Herbert Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Herbert this season:
|Justin Herbert Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 28.5||-120 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 28.5||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Herbert was a video game cheat code by the time the season ended. He finished the 2020 season with 4,336 yards passing, 31 TDs and 10 INTs in 15 games and completed 66.6% of his 595 attempts.
A major reason for those numbers was WR Keenan Allen, who caught 100 passes for 992 yards and 8 TDs. But a chunk of Herbert’s numbers came in garbage time. Three of Herbert’s passing TDs and 302 yards came against the Chiefs in a Week 16 game that meant nothing in the standings since the Chiefs had already clinched home field and the Chargers were long since eliminated.
Herbert also threw for 547 yards and three more TDs in a two-game span against the Broncos and Raiders; that also came after L.A. was eliminated. The same situation could await the Chargers this season. Look for a late surge here.
Take the over on Herbert throwing 28.5 TD passes at -120 with DraftKings ➜.
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Herbert this season:
|Over 4,550.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 4,550.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Over 4,450.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 4,450.5 Yards||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
Lombardi coached Drew Brees for 12 of Brees' 15 NFL seasons while in New Orleans. The Chargers have some big-time targets. And the running game is led by Austin Ekeler, who is back healthy after missing five games last season. But Lombardi won't be rushing things with Herbert and needs to develop the entire offensive unit, not just the QB.
Among Herbert’s out-of-division opponents are the Ravens, Patriots and Washington. He might not break 500 yards passing combined in those games.
Herbert will improve this year, but these numbers are too high. Even for 17 games. Back Herbert to stay under 4,550.5 yards passing at -112 at FanDuel ➜.
NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 25th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Herbert compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins