How Much Money Would You Make Betting On Tom Brady Every Week?
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How much money would you have made if you bet $100 on Tom Brady against the spread each week he played in the NFL?
The short answer: $5,940.
The long answer, well that’s a bit more complex.
Brady won his seventh Super Bowl Sunday, as his Buccaneers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 in Tampa, Florida. It was Brady's 10th appearance in the NFL title game. The Bucs were 3-point underdogs in claiming the outright victory.
The win left Brady 201-135-8 ATS, including the postseason, during his 19 fulll seasons in the NFL. That’s a net of $5,940 using our $100-per-game formula. Our total take includes a -110 line for each point spread, which is the industry standard for NFL betting.
Brady’s overall winning percentage ATS: 58.4%. That’s a pretty solid record for any expert handicapper considering the number of games.
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Not all point spreads are created equally. For our research, we used the Las Vegas consensus ATS numbers posted at Pro Football Reference for each of his games as our guidepost.
Brady continues to defy both Father Time and the nay-sayers. The 43-year-old QB dispatched Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes en route to the championship, and was an underdog at PointsBet and other books before each game.
Brady is 5-5 ATS in the Super Bowl
In his previous nine Super Bowl appearances, all with the Patriots, Brady was 6-3 straight up and 4-5 ATS. His Super Bowl now stands at .500. His mixed ATS success in the title game is mixed in part because of slow starts. A Brady-led team had never scored a touchdown in the first quarter of a Super Bowl before Sunday. Under bettors have enjoyed the edge in Brady’s 10 Super Bowls, going 6-4 against the total. The total Sunday bounced as high as 57.5 before settling at 56. The Chiefs, however, did not score a touchdown in the game. But there was a streaker who reached the end zone.
Tampa Bay was coming off a straight-up 31-26 NFC Championship Game victory at Green Bay, where it was a 3-point underdog. Brady is now 10-4 straight-up in his 14 conference title game appearances, 13 of which came with New England, and 9-5 ATS.
Brady has appeared in 346 NFL games, including the postseason. Two of those games are not counted in our tally here.
Brady began his NFL career on Nov. 23, 2000. He took his first snaps on back end of a 34-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. That game is not counted here, considering Brady was not the starting QB. On Sept. 23, 2001, Drew Bledsoe started for the Patriots but was knocked out of the game by Mo Lewis of the Jets in the fourth quarter on a vicious sideline hit. Brady entered in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots lost 10-3 and failed to cover (-1.5) against the Jets. That game is not counted here, as well
Remarkably durable during his extended career, Brady missed the rest of 2008 season after being knocked out in early in Week 1 with a torn ACL. The Patriots were a mind-boggling 16-point favorite that sunny afternoon in Foxboro, Massachusetts, before losing 17-10 to Kansas City. That game is included in our tally since Brady was the starter and main reason for that insanely high line.
Despite being listed as “probable – right shoulder” on the Patriots’ weekly injury report for several years — Brady never missed another start before or since due to injury.
Best Season For Brady Backers Was 2016
The most profitable season for Brady backers was 2016. After sitting out four games due to his Deflategate suspension, Brady unleashed his vengeance upon the NFL. He made his supporters rich, going 13-2 ATS. That rampage ended with Brady erasing a 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl 51 and covering a -3 line with a 34-28 overtime victory over the Falcons.
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The difference between Brady’s ATS and SU record was never greater than it was in 2007. That season, the Patriots finished 18-1 after losing to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Brady threw for 50 touchdowns and 4,806 yards while completing 68.8% of his passes. Yet he and the Patriots finished a paltry 10-9 ATS.
As far as the total goes, there is no real edge either way. Brady has gone over the closing points total 176 times, while staying under 162 times. His remaining games ended in pushes.
In another not-so-ironic twist for diehard Bradyphiles, sports betting remains illegal in both Massachusetts and Florida, the two states in which Brady has played his home games in the NFL.