How Much Would You Make Betting On Matthew Stafford Each Week?
Bill Speros | 17 mins
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Matthew Stafford found career salvation this offseason when he was shipped from the Detroit Lions to the LA Rams in a deal that included Jared Goff and a bunch of draft picks. Stafford and the Rams this season are looking to become the second team to win the Super Bowl at their home stadium.
NFL betting experts and oddsmakers like their chances. Stafford could be the missing piece the Rams need to get past the Bays in the NFC.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Stafford performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Stafford is 75-89-4 against the spread in his 168 NFL career starts, all with the Lions. That’s a tiny improvement from his 74-93-1 record overall. These numbers include three postseason games.
Backing Stafford A Losing Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Stafford ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Lions each week during his career are down $2,082.50 since Stafford’s 2009 debut. He’s only missed eight starts in his past 10 seasons.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Stafford has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Rams are ready to run it back to the Super Bowl, which they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in 2019. But they won’t be doing it with RB Cam Akers (625 yards rushing in 2020), who was lost for the season with an Achilles injury suffered before training camp. To replace Akers, the Rams dealt a pair of conditional picks to New England for running back Sony Michel. He was the only player to score a TD in Super Bowl 53, and ran for 2,292 yards over three seasons since being taken 18th overall by New England in 2018.
Darrell Henderson Jr. will pair with Michel at the featured running back spot this season. Stafford has a pair of top-level receivers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Those two combined for 1,910 yards receiving, 182 catches and nine TDs on the other end of Goff’s often inconsistent throws. They should flourish further this season with Stafford and a reconstituted and somewhat massive offensive line.
Oddsmakers have slotted the Rams among the top teams in the NFC. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, LA is priced at +1400 with DraftKings ➜ to win it all. Meanwhile, FanDuel has the Rams at +700 to win the NFC ➜, and +200 to win the NFC West ➜. The 49ers are favored at DraftKings to win the division at +180.
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Stafford and the Rams. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Rams do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 10.5 Wins||+120 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 10.5 Wins||-135 at DraftKings ➜|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||-178 at FanDuel ➜|
|No||+160 at DraftKings ➜|
Odds via FanDuel ➜ and DraftKings ➜, and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison on the two sportsbooks.
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This team reached the Super Bowl with Goff as quarterback just three seasons ago. With Stafford’s arm to finally stretch the field and the expected continued excellence on defense, the Rams are worth your consideration (if you’re not on the Tom Brady train) to win the NFC West, the NFC and the Super Bowl, which is scheduled for SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13.
The Rams lost big names on defense this offseason: John Johnson, Troy Hill, Morgan Fox and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who switched locker rooms at SoFi to become head coach of the Chargers. But Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey remain the anchors, and the other parts are there for an elite defense.
RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
The Rams have the 10th toughest schedule in the NFL, based on their opponents’ combined 2020 records. Their Week 3 matchup against Tampa Bay could end up deciding the top seed in the NFC. The Rams' only road games outside the division in which they will be likely underdogs are at Green Bay and Baltimore. Go with the over on 10.5 wins at +120 at FanDuel ➜ for the Rams in 2021, and back them to make the playoffs at -178 at FanDuel ➜, as well.
Matthew Stafford 2021 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch
Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Stafford, and how best to play them this season.
Matthew Stafford Passing TDs
Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Stafford this season:
|Matthew Stafford Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 28.5||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 28.5||-115 at DraftKings ➜|
Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.
Stafford threw for 4,084 yards, 26 TDs and 10 INTs last season with the Lions, who lost 11 games. He threw the ball 528 times and completed 64.2% of his attempts. Stafford will be on the field much more often for the Rams than he ever could have hoped to be while on the Lions. Look for his snaps and attempts to significantly increase this season.
Michel can be a TD machine, as evidenced by the 2018 postseason. Look for the Rams to target TE Tyler Higbee repeatedly inside the 20, as well. Sean McVay won’t use Stafford with the starting offense in any preseason games, so things might be a bit choppy early. Look for steady improvement as Stafford and his head coach grow more comfortable with each other as the season progresses.
Take the over on Stafford throwing 28.5 TD passes at -115 with DraftKings ➜.
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards
Here are the odds on total passing yards for Stafford this season:
|Over 4,550.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Under 4,550.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel ➜|
|Over 4,595.5 Yards||-130 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 4,595.5 Yards||+100 at DraftKings ➜|
Only three NFL QBs surpassed this number last season, but there is an extra game on the schedule this time. To go over the 4,550.5 number, Stafford will have to average 268 yards over a 17-game season. But he's surpassed that per-game average six times in 10 full seasons while playing for the lowly Lions.
He has the targets, the offensive line, and the coach to stockpile yards. Stafford could amass 1,600 yards passing in just four out-of-division games against the Jaguars, Texans, Lions and Titans. Facing the Bucs, Packers, Ravens, Vikings, and of course, the 49ers twice, will keep things from getting out of hand statistically.
Take Stafford to go over 4,550.5 yards passing at -112 at FanDuel ➜ this season.
NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 26th story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Stafford compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert