By Bill Speros | | 11 mins
How Much Would You Make Betting On Jimmy Garoppolo Each Week?
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Jimmy Garoppolo reached the Super Bowl in his first full season as a starter. But the problem for the drop-dead gorgeous QB for the 49ers is that he’s only managed to get through one season fully healthy in his three-plus years since being dealt by the Patriots. NFL betting experts and oddsmakers are challenged by how to handle Jimmy G over the long term because of his inability to be available on a consistent basis..
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has Garoppolo performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Garoppolo is 20-14-1 against the spread in his 35 NFL career starts, that includes three postseason games and a tough 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54. That’s a slip from his 26-9 record straight up.
Backing Garoppolo A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Garoppolo ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Patriots and 49ers each week during his career are up $418. Garoppolo's winning percentage is 57.1% ATS but 74.2% overall. Laat season, Garoppolo suffered a pair of ankle injuries that knocked him out of the starter’s spot for 10 of 16 weeks.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Garoppolo has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The 49ers chose North Dakota State QB Trey Lance with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. Meanwhile, Garoppolo was the subject of multiple trade rumors this offseason and several betting markets offered action on him landing in New England, Denver and elsewhere.
Where the question was once “Jimmy or Trey” in the Bay Area, the reality has morphed into more of a situation of “Jimmy and Trey.” Head coach Kyle Shanahan is leering toward a hybrid QB situation in San Francisco, similar to how the Saints used Taysom Hill in the final few years of Drew Brees’ career. Still, Garoppolo is all but certain to be starting for the 49ers in Week 1 on Sept. 12 at Detroit.
Oddsmakers place the 49ers among the top-tier teams in the NFC this season. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, San Francisco is priced at +1400 with DraftKings to win it all. Meanwhile, FanDuel has the 49ers at +650 to win the NFC , and +190 to win the NFC West . The Rams are a close second in the NFC West at +200 with FanDuel .
What To Expect From The 49ers & Garoppolo In 2021
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Garoppolo and the 49ers. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not the 49ers play a 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 10.5 Wins||+100 at FanDuel|
|Under 10.5 Wins||-112 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||-200 at DraftKings|
|No||+164 at FanDuel|
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The 49ers have a relatively soft schedule (22nd overall based on 2020 opponents’ combined records), especially when it comes to road games outside the NFC West. The only potential road game away from the division where the 49ers would be underdogs is at Tennessee in Week 16.
RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
Of course, the NFC West is vicious, and it is not unreasonable to envision a scenario where all four teams finish 3-3 against each other. The balance of the 49ers schedule should push them to at least 11 wins on the 17-game schedule.
There are no individual NFL futures or prop bets featuring Garoppolo given his undefined role in the 49ers offense. He faces long odds in NFL MVP and comeback player of the year markets, but isn’t worth a wager in either one.
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NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the latest story in our summer-long series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Garoppolo compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson