How Much Would You Make Betting On Andy Dalton Each Week?
Quarterback Andy Dalton will be starting for his third NFL team in three seasons when he takes the first snap for the Chicago Bears on Sept. 12 at SoFi Stadium against the host LA Rams. NFL betting experts and oddsmakers spent much of the offseason pondering whether or not first-round pick Justin Fields, Nick Foles or Dalton would earn the coveted Week 1 QB1 slot.
Dalton was the prohibitive favorite at the start of training camp, standing at -500 with DraftKings . Fields was +500, while Foles was +2500.
This is the latest story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. So how well has the Red Rifle performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Dalton is 75-65-6 against the spread in his 146 NFL career starts, that includes four postseason losses for the Bengals. That’s a nice improvement from his 74-70-2 record straight up.
RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
Backing Dalton A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Dalton ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Bengals and Cowboys each week during his career are up $317.50. That’s more than enough for a new Bears jersey to add to the Dalton collection.
Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Dalton has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
Oddsmakers place the Bears among the bottom-tier teams in the NFC this season. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, Chicago is priced at +6500 with DraftKings to win their second Super Bowl this winter.
Meanwhile, DK has the Bears at at +3500 to win the NFC , and +550 to win the NFC North . The Packers are the clear favorites in what was once known as the “Black And Blue Division” at -190 with FanDuel .
What To Expect From The Bears & Dalton In 2021
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for Dalton and the Bears. All bets in these categories are valid whether or not the Bears play a 17-game NFL schedule.
|Over 7.5 Wins||+100 at FanDuel|
|Under 7.5 Wins||-115 at DraftKings|
|Make Playoffs||Yes||+210 at DraftKings|
|No||-250 at FanDuel|
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The Bears have the third toughest schedule in the NFL this season, based on 2020 opponents’ combined records. For starters, they open at the LA Rams, who will be welcoming fans to SoFi Stadium for the first time and are among the top picks in the NFC at +700 at FanDuel . Their other road games outside the division include stops at Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Seattle.
The Packers and Vikings are always tough outs, no matter the circumstances. The Bears appear to be in no hurry to rebuild this season due to salary cap issues. They tweaked the offensive line. Meanwhile, running back David Montgomery returns (1,070 yards rushing last season) this year, as does WR Allen Robinson, who is back on a franchise tag after topping 1,100 yards receiving and averaging 100 catches apiece in the past two seasons.
Can this team win eight games over a 17-game schedule? The most reliable part of the Bears has been their defense. That unit has too many questions entering 2021, especially with a new coordinator in Sean Desai and the loss of CB Kyle Fuller. Take the under on 7.5 wins at -115 at DraftKings for the Bears in 2021. While we back them to miss the playoffs, the price of -250 at FanDuel is not worth your time or money.
Dalton started for the Bengals from 2011-19 before Cincinnati went with LSU QB Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. Dalton signed with Cowboys before last season and was pressed into quick service, starting nine games last season (4-5 ATS) following Dak Precott’s injury. Dalton then hopped to the Bears as the team jettisoned Mitch Trubisky – who will be forever known as the “QB Taken 8 Spots Before Patrick Mahomes II In The 2017 Draft.”
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Fields NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year?
The Bears moved up in the 2021 draft to swipe Fields out of Ohio State with the 11th overall pick. Fields won 30 of his 34 NCAA games in which he played with Georgia and Ohio State. Two of those losses came to Clemson in the December 2019 National Semifinal and Alabama in the 2021 National Championship games. Fields amassed 5,701 yards passing in college, completed 64.% of his attempts and threw for 67 TDs against just 7 picks. He also ran for 1,133 yards and scored 19 TDs on the ground.
While Dalton is starting Week 1, it’s hard to envision Fields not getting a significant number of snaps this season
Here are the latest odds on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:
|Trevor Lawrence||+350 at FanDuel|
|Justin Fields||+600 at DraftKings|
|Zach Wilson||+750 at DraftKings|
|Trey Lance||+750 at DraftKings|
|Najee Harris||+900 at FanDuel|
|Mac Jones||+1000 at FanDuel|
|Kyle Pitts||+1100 at FanDuel|
Fields could contend here given the offensive tools available and the low expectations in Chicago. But his price is too low. The best value plays here right now are Jones and Pitts.
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NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 29th story in our summer-long series examining 2021 NFL starting quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Dalton compares to other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Cam Newton | Teddy Bridgewater | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson | Jimmy Garoppolo | Jameis Winston