By Bill Speros | | 28 mins
Mac Jones Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Props to Back
Over the last four months, rookie Mac Jones moved from +500 to +150 at DraftKings to take the first snap for the Patriots on Sept. 12 against the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. Those who backed Jones were rewarded with the news Tuesday that the Patriots were cutting Newton and making Jones their QB1 for the upcoming season.
Bill Belichick took the Alabama QB with the 15th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Belichick’s ties to Alabama head coach Nick Saban are well documented. Jones had an edge coming into camp that few others had spending time in Saban’s system.
During training camp, Jones took everything the Patriots threw at him and exceeded expectations. He also showed a veteran game presence and won over the locker room with his hard work, personality and performance. Meanwhile, Newton was average at best, chose not to get vaccinated for COVID-19 and missed five key days of practice last week because he failed to follow proper NFL protocols concerning the virus.
What to Expect From The Patriots, Jones In 2021
Newton and the Patriots spent 2020 wandering through NFL Middle Earth in the wake of Tom Brady’s departure to Tampa Bay. The Patriots finished 7-9, posting their first under .500 record since 2000. It was also the first season in which New England missed the playoffs since 2008, when Brady was sidelined with a torn ACL after the first quarter of the Week 1 opener. The Patriots aren’t getting much love in NFL futures markets this season, either.
Brady and the Bucs head to Foxboro in Week 4 on Oct. 3. Jones, and the Patriots are 3-point home underdogs at DraftKings to the Super Bowl champions.
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Jones, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots are projected to finish among the also-rans, according to the latest odds available on major betting apps. Following the news of Jones becoming the team’s starting QB, New England remained at +3700 with FanDuel to win its seventh Super Bowl this upcoming February.
That same site has New England +1700 to win the AFC , and as the third choice at +360 to win the AFC East behind Buffalo and Miami. Those numbers, too, remained static after the news of Newton’s release.
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Patriots 2021 Win Total & To Make Playoffs
The Patriots 2021 win total opened at 9 following Super Bowl 55 but has moved to up 9.5 at most major sportsbooks. At FanDuel last month, the over on 9 was -140 and the under was +120.
|Patriots 2021 Win Total||Odds|
|Over 9.5||+105 at DraftKings|
|Under 9.5||-120 at FanDuel|
|Patriots To Make The Playoffs||Odds||Yes||+126 at FanDuel|
|No||-135 at DraftKings|
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The Patriots spent more than $160 million in guaranteed money this offseason to land several big-name free agents, including WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, DB Jalen Mills and LBs Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy. The wideouts have been disappointing in camp. More troublesome was the news on Tuesday that former NFL Defensive Player of the Year and All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore will be out until at least Week 7 after landing on the PUP list.
The Patriots defense has Dont’a Hightower back from a COVID-19 opt-out. Long-time slot receiver Julian Edelman also retired in the offseason.
Jones has the keys but not a whole lot of gas to drive the Patriots’ bus. This team was built in Belichick’s image down to the choice of Jones from Alabama. This will be a run-first, ball-control offensive with Josh McDaniels slowly unleashing Jones throughout the season.
The Hoodie has a lot to prove this year, especially against Brady in Week 4. The value here is on the upside. We like the Patriots to go over 9.5 wins at +105 with DraftKings , and to make the playoffs at +126 with FanDuel .
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Jones NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds market was significantly shaken up by the news of Jones winning the QB1 job over Newton.
Jones moved into second behind Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars. Before Tuesday, Jones was +1000 to win Offensive ROY honors at
|Player||Odds Before||Odds After|
|Trevor Lawrence||+350 at FanDuel||+400 at FanDuel|
|Mac Jones||+1000 at FanDuel||+450 at FanDuel|
|Justin Fields||+600 at DraftKings||+750 at DraftKings|
|Zach Wilson||+750 at DraftKings||+750 at DraftKings|
|Trey Lance||+750 at DraftKings||+750 at DraftKings|
|Najee Harris||+900 at FanDuel||+900 at FanDuel|
|Kyle Pitts||+1100 at FanDuel||+1100 at FanDuel|
The value on Jones is now gone. He’s +600 at DraftKings , which is still a decent price but no longer a steal. Jones has a big edge here over Fields and Lawrence in that he is inheriting a team coached by Belichick and McDaniels. And the Patriots are solid everywhere except in their secondary.
While Pitts remains the best value on the board, our play remains to back Jones to win NFL Rookie of the Year at +650 on DraftKings .
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Mac Jones 2021 Props And Futures To Back
Let’s look at some of the props and futures for Jones now available. There were no individual props available on Newton before he was cut, which was a strong tell that Newton’s future was not as certain as Belichick wanted us to believe. Newton was a laughable +6000 in NFL MVP odds.
Mac Jones Total 2021 Passing TDs, Yards
|Mac Jones 2021 Passing TDs||Odds|
|Over 23.5||-110 at DraftKings|
|Under 23.5||-120 at DraftKings|
|Mac Jones Total Passing Yards||Odds||Over 3,800.5||-115 at DraftKings|
|Under, 3,800.5||-115 at DraftKings|
The Patriots re-tooled their offense from a passing and receiving perspective this offseason. They bring they back a stable offensive line and a strong running game. This will give Jones plenty of time and cushion to learn under real-time NFL conditions and make the play-action a legit possibility. Agholor and Bourne flopped in camp, but are proven veterans. Look for N’Keal Harry to finally show his potential And Hunter Henry is a stud, once healthy.
We like Jones to go over 23.5 TD passes at -110 at DraftKings . However, the 3,800.5 total passing yards is a bit of a reach for a rookie. This number is higher than the expected total for the likes of Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Teddy Bridgewater.
Jones will be flirting with the 4,500-yard passing barrier someday, but just not this season. Back Jones to stay under 3,800.5 yards passing this season at -115 at DraftKings
Breaking Down Jones ATS
Jones made 17 starts for the Crimson Tide, starting in 2019 when he took over for the injured Tua Tagovailoa. Those two former Alabama QBs will be matched up against each other in Week 1 and Week 17 this season as the Patriots and Dolphins continue their AFC East rivalry.
At Alabama, Jones went 12-5 as a starter against the spread and won the National Championship on Jan. 11 of this year, beating Ohio State 52-24. The Tide went 15-2 overall with Jones as its starting QB.
In our ongoing series looking at the success of NFL quarterbacks from a betting perspective, we learned that Newton was 76-66-1 against NFL spreads. Newton was 7-8 ATS in 2020. That equaled New England’s overall record in the games he started.
Using our system of betting $100 on Newton ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Newton weekly since his 2011 debut are up $308.40 after 10 seasons.
Not all spreads are created equally. For our exercise, we used the Panthers and Patriots ATS records for each game Newton has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
A bill to legalize in-person and online sports betting has passed the Massachusetts state House of Representatives. It remains on hold in the state Senate. Gov. Charlie Baker has indicted he would sign the legislation if it gets to his desk.
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NFL Quarterbacks ATS
Check out our series examining NFL starting quarterbacks against the spread:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson | Jimmy Garoppolo | Andy Dalton | Jalen Hurts