How Much Would You Make Betting On Tyrod Taylor Each Week?
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor entered the 2020 season with expectations of making a deep run with the Los Angeles Chargers as their QB1. But he suffered a punctured lung because of a doctor’s mistake while he was receiving an injection. That ended his season.
This offseason, Taylor signed a one-year deal with the Houston Texans, expecting to compete for a backup role behind Deshaun Watson. However, sexual assault allegations have since sidelined Watson. But NFL betting oddsmakers and expert remain unmoved in their historically low expectations for the Texans this season.
This story is part of our series examining NFL starting quarterbacks against the spread. The Texans are Taylor’s fifth team since he was chosen by the Ravens in 2011 NFL draft. How well has performed against NFL spreads in his career, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week?
Taylor is 26-19-3 against the spread in his 48 NFL career starts, which includes one playoff loss with the Bills following the 2017 season. He is 25-22-1 overall as a starter.
RELATED: Check Out The Latest NFL Week 1 Odds & Betting Lines
Backing Taylor A Winning Proposition
Using our system of betting $100 on Taylor ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed the Bills, Browns and Chargers each week in which Taylor started are up $463.40.
Not all spreads are created equally. We are using records against the spread for each game Taylor has started, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Texans are the longest shot of all 32 NFL teams to win Super Bowl 56. According to the latest Super Bowl odds, Houston stands at +30000 with DraftKings to win it all. Meanwhile, DK has the Texans at a stratospheric at +15000 to win the AFC , and +3000 to win the AFC South . The Titans sit atop the AFC South odds at -110 with FanDuel , followed by the Colts at +140.
What To Expect From The Texans and Taylor In 2021
Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2021 win totals and playoff odds for the Texans. All bets in these categories are valid whether Houston plays a 17-game NFL schedule.
Texans 2021 Win Totals And Playoff Odds
|Over 4 Wins||-110 at DraftKings|
|Under 4 Wins||+100 at FanDuel|
|Make Playoffs||No||-1200 at FanDuel|
|Yes||+800 at DraftKings|
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The Texans rank in the middle of the NFL – at No. 15 – in 2021 strength of schedule, based on their opponents’ records last season. Going into the season without Watson as their starting QB – he continues to be the subject of trade rumors to the Miami Dolphins and reports that the Texans will likely put him on IR each week of the season – was challenging enough for this team. But Houston also lost J.J. Watt in the offseason to the Arizona Cardinals to free-agency after a decade of his impactful play and presence on and off the field.
The schedule-makers did no favors for the Texans this season. Houston faces Cleveland, San Francisco and Buffalo on the road outside the division, and gets Seattle at home. In total, the Texans face eight teams that make the 2020 playoffs – in addition to the Patriots and Dolphins. Even the Jaguars and Jets are no longer complete pushovers. Take the under on 4 wins at +100 with FanDuel for Houston. While we do not back them to make the playoffs, the price of -1200 at FanDuel is an absurd play.
Texans, Taylor Props, Futures To Back
Regular Season Fewest Wins
Here are the latest odds for the fewest regular-season wins in the NFL for the 2021 season:
|Houston Texans||+250 at DraftKings|
|Detroit Lions||+350 at DraftKings|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+800 at DraftKings|
|NY Jets||+800 at DraftKings|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||+1200 at DraftKings|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1200 at DraftKings|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+1400 at DraftKings|
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The Texans are a solid play here, even at this low price. The best value on this board may well be the Eagles, who, like the Texans, won only 4 games in 2020. The Lions, Jets and Jaguars also have new QBs this season and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is back and fully healthy after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 10 last season.
Back the Texans for having the fewest NFL wins this season at +250 with DraftKings .
Here are the latest odds for any NFL team to have a winless season and the Texans to go 0-17.
|Any Winless Team||Odds|
|Any Team To Go 0-17||+1100 at DraftKings|
|Texans Winless In 2021||Odds|
|Texans Winless in 2021||+2000 at DraftKings|
Going 0-17 is nearly an insurmountable task in the NFL, even for a team in this much turmoil. Taylor could well surprise on the upside and this team could score more than most anticipate. Just the prospect of any NFL team losing all of its home games is a hard wager. Pass on these wagers for the Texans or any team to go winless this season.
NFL Quarterbacks ATS
This is the 31st story in our series examining NFL quarterbacks against the spread. You can see how Taylor compares to 30 other QBs here:
Tom Brady | Ben Roethlisberger | Patrick Mahomes | Dak Prescott | Aaron Rodgers | Lamar Jackson | Jared Goff | Kyler Murray | Carson Wentz | Josh Allen | Teddy Bridgewater | Drew Lock | Daniel Jones | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Ryan Tannehill | Derek Carr | Tua Tagovailoa | Trevor Lawrence | Matt Ryan | Sam Darnold | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Kirk Cousins | Justin Herbert | Matthew Stafford | Russell Wilson | Jimmy Garoppolo | Andy Dalton | Jameis Winston | Mac Jones | Jalen Hurts
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